Yet another poll has the 5th Congressional District race between Rep. Tom Perriello (D), State Senator Robert Hurt (R), and Jeffrey Clark (I-Tea Party), to be a tossup between Perriello and Hurt. According to The Hill/ANGA, it's Hurt 45%-Perriello 44% among likely voters. This poll follows one by Custom Strategic Research, which has the race at Hurt 44%-Perriello 43%. Basically, at this point, the only polling outfit which has the 5th CD as anything but a tossup is SurveyUSA, which claims that Hurt leads Perriello by 23 points. That's becoming more and more of an "outlier" every day.
Meanwhile, as NLS points out, Glenn Nye trails by 6 points to Scott Rigell (42%-36%), despite running a campaign in which he's distanced himself from...well, basically being a Democrat. In contrast, Perriello has staunchly defended his progressive votes for his district, and it doesn't seem to be hurting him relative to conservadem Nye. If this result holds on election day, I hope that it does some serious damage to the concept that Democrats have to run away from what makes the Democrats in order to get elected in "swing" districts. As I've always believed, voters don't have to agree with a candidate on everything, as long as they believe the person has integrity and really believes what he or she is advocating. That's Tom Perriello to a "t." Glenn Nye? Not so much.
I'm not sure what to make of SurveyUSA polls this cycle, as some of them have seemed wacky (e.g., in Virginia's 5th CD). With that caveat, check out these new results:
In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia's 9th Congressional District today, 09/30/10, incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher defeats Republican State House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith 53% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, little has changed; Boucher up 3 points, Griffith is down 2. In addition to maintaining a commanding lead among women, Boucher now leads among men and voters under age 50, groups where he previously trailed.
If true, it looks like Rick Boucher is coasting to reelection over carpetbagger and climate change skeptic Morgan Griffith. I find it particularly interesting that Boucher is gaining ground on Griffith; could this be yet another indication of what appears to be a more favorable climate for Democrats as the election nears? Oh, wait, hasn't the corporate media been telling us for months that the Democrats are doomed, DOOMED they tell us?!? Yeah, and we must always believe the corporate media! (snark)
I've been lurking and reading for over a year, but it wasn't until a few days ago that I saw something that made me want to post.
What I saw was a teeny tiny sign on Hull Street Road in Midlothian for Rick Waugh, who is running against Eric Cantor in the 7th District. And I mean it was tiny. If I'd blinked, I would have missed it.
Up until then, I had thought Cantor was running unopposed.
What does this say about the state of our political campaigns?
Just as with polls done for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, it's hard to know what to make of polls commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee. With that disclaimer, here are the results from a new poll by the NRCC on Virginia's 2nd Congressional District:
In Virginia's 2nd district, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) trailed car dealer Scott Rigell (R) by 5 points. The Congressman took 40 percent to Rigell's 45 percent. Independent Kenny Golden, a former Republican, took 7 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted by the GOP firm Ayres McHenry & Associates Sept 23 to 26 and had a 4.9 point margin of error.
That 5-point lead for the used car dealer (Rigell) is just outside the statistical margin of error, so right now it looks like the 2nd CD could go either way. That's assuming, of course, that the GOP polling is accurate, which we can't really know since we aren't privy to the "internals" of the poll. How about we just call this race a tossup and leave it at that?
Morgan Griffith is in trouble for his do-nothing, no-ideas attempt to intrude on our 9th District representation. So bereft of ideas is the GOP, its new "Pledge" and its 9th District candidate, that Griffith has taken to wearing a shirt saying that he can beat Boucher. That's it? Wow! He thinks he is Tootle's the Train! Talk about underwhelming! And so, to the rescue comes another corporate front group, Americans for Job Security (AJS), which is apparently run from an UPS mail box and also an office suite in the same building as Karl Rove's new money mill, Crosspoint GPS.
The Roanoke Times reported that last week that Congressman Rick Boucher requested a Lynchburg station to remove the AJS ads. At issue were a number of false statements in the ad, including that Boucher sides with Nancy Pelosi more than 96% of the time. It is not that there is anything wrong with that or that the vilification of the House Speaker is justified in any way. But that is a blog for another day. The RT's Mike Sluss wrote:
From a recent debate, I love how 8th CD Republican nominee Patrick Murray asks Rep. Jim Moran this meandering, long-winded question, apparently in an attempt to corner him, and how Moran totally takes Murray down. I'd also point out that, whatever other issues I may have with Jim Moran, he responds here exactly how I want progressive Democrats to respond to the noxious pabulum being spewed by so many Republicans this year. In fact, I'd recommend that other Democratic candidates might want to watch this video and learn a thing or two from Jim Moran.
[John] McCain is the headline attraction at Monday night's fundraiser for [Patrick] Murray, a former U.S. Army colonel now mounting a long-shot bid to unseat Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D). The event will be held at the Alexandria home of Susan and David Hirschmann. Susan Hirschmann is a lobbyist with Williams & Jensen who served as top aide to Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) when DeLay was House Majority Whip, while David Hirschmann is a senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
The host committee also includes Charlie Black, a former McCain presidential campaign adviser and head of the lobbying form Prime Policy Group; Altria lobbyist Bruce Gates and his wife Joyce Gates, a former chief of staff to current House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio)
If you need a reminder of what an corrupt slimeball Tom DeLay was, click here. As for John BONEr, see here for how he is "tightly bound to lobbyists." And Patrick Murray seriously thinks this is going to play in liberal, good-government Arlington and Alexandria? I mean, hell, why don't Republicans just nominate Tom DeLay himself, the guy lives in Alexandria after all?
Excellent answer by Rep. Tom Perriello (D-5th) on this question at the 5th CD debate the other day. Independent candidate Jeffrey Clark also gives a serious and articulate answer, although I completely disagree with him. As for Republican Robert Hurt's answer...oh wait, Robert Hurt wasn't there. Where was he? Perhaps he was hard at work developing legislation (possibly to protect his district from Bob McDonnell's cockamamie schemes) for the next Virginia General Assembly session, since that's where he's going to be working come 2011? :)
Over at his new home, the New York Times, Nate Silver of 538.com fame is out with his latest House forecast. Overall, it's not pretty, with Republicans having a "two-in-three chance of claiming a majority of House seats in November." Also, after 100,000 model simulations, Nate Silver forecasts 225 Republicans and 210 Democrats in the House of Representatives next January. Let's hope he's wrong, but he's usually right.
Anyway, what about Virginia? According to Nate, the "likely takeover" chances for Republicans are:
*5th CD (Tom Perriello vs. Robert Hurt and Jeffrey Clark): 88%
*2nd CD (Nye vs. Rigell and Golden): 59%
*11th CD (Connolly vs. Fimian): 24%
*9th CD (Boucher vs. Griffith): 22%
*3rd and 8th CDs (Scott and Moran vs. 2 guys you never heard of): SAFE
In sum, it looks like Nye and Perriello are in trouble, the other Democrats are looking pretty good. So, what do you think of these ratings? I don't have a model of my own, but it's hard to argue with Nate Silver.
(Hopefully Perriello will put the "hurt" on Hurt tonight. Go Tom! - promoted by lowkell)
The second Fifth District debate of the general election will be held tonight in Nelson County, and hosted by the Nelson County Chamber of Commerce. The debate's at 7 P.M. and will be broadcast online here.
Robert Hurt has a history of dodging debates. During the Republican primary, he was attacked by the Republican base for the same thing he's doing now--refusing to show up to the January Jefferson Area Tea Party debate. And he has not only not shown up to the first general election debate, but he has also been dodging questions, depending on other Republicans to answer for him. If Robert Hurt were elected to Congress, would he show the same lack of commitment to constituent relations? It's looking like instead of showing up to work for his constituents in the Fifth, Hurt would just give us an empty chair.
Don't believe what you are hearing. Voters do not vote on ballots with "generic" questions, so "generic" polls mean nothing. Nor does level of "excitement," necessarily translate into votes. But getting to the best predictors, such as commitment to vote, has become increasingly difficult. Fed up with telemarketers, many of us do not answer calls from unrecognized area codes, or numbers, we don't normally receive calls from. And unless cellphone users give away their cell numbers, those relying exclusively on cell phones are underrepresented as well. As Rachel Maddow has documented and I have blogged, this is the year of the incumbent. But, given the onslaught of trumped-up horse race stories claiming otherwise, it is hard to remember that. There is no better example that this is and will be the year of the incumbent than the 9th District race in Virginia.
An Augusta Free Press (AFP) story dated Friday reported results of a new Survey USA poll reports that voters prefer Boucher over Griffith 50 to 40%. Voters in the 9th know about Rick's deep roots in and commitment to the 9th.
They also know that Morgan Griffith has done nothing for the 9th District. Griffith hopes to carpetbag instant entitlement to the 9th District seat. He's just the latest in a long list of carpetbaggers trotted before voters of the 9th in hopes of unseating one of the most popular, hard working US Representatives anywhere. The only thing Griffith has ever done, he did to the 9th, by gerrymandering the hell out of it for fun and political profit.
(Keep reading below for some really interesting info about internal polls as reported by AFP.)
Since all politics are local, below the fold I want to provide some key facts about the Congressional race in VA-11, and my explanation of why I'm going to do my best imitation of an Olympic-caliber long-jumper to leap over my enthusiasm gap.
Robert Hurt owes citizens of the Fifth District a better explanation of where he stands on eliminating and/or privatizing Social Security, if only to demonstrate that he knows what the Hell he is talking about.
I'm not holding my breath. This guy's strategy, like that of Repubs around the country, is to say as little as possible, and hope that popular anger stoked by a dismal economy (mostly the fault of GOP policies) will catapult them into the office in November.
Sadly, current polls say their plan might work - I admit that. But it does not excuse Hurt and his fellow Republicans from demonstrating that they at least understand the issues facing Americans today, rather than showing that they are simply adept at tapping into people's fears and repeating talking points.
And Social Security provides a clear example of this, because the current evidence clearly shows that Hurt either does not appear to understand this critical issue, or is purposefully lying to people about where he stands.
Hurt has been accused of supporting the privatization of Social Security based on his support for Rep. Paul Ryan's proposed plan to balance the budget. That is a reasonable accusation, because Ryan's plan, among other things, calls not only for the privatization of Social Security, but also for the end of Medicare, and if that is Hurt's blueprint for balancing the budget, voters have a right to know.
It's worth noting that while there are plenty of Repubs on the talk show circuit who will cite Ryan's plan when asked about how they would balance the budget, his plan actually has little support among serious policy makers, or even within the GOP caucus, mainly because privatization of Social Security and terminating Medicare are simply not politically serious alternatives.
Here is the heart of Hurt's problem. Answering the accusation, Hurt quickly denied he favored privatization. "I am not in favor of privatizing Social Security," Hurt said in a June interview in the Register & Bee. "That is a promise that has been made, it has been earned, and it's something that must be kept. End of story."
No wonder so-called "Tea Party" corporate shills look to the dangerous demagogue Beckster (Glenn Beck) to pump them up this weekend. Their party is so broken that it is increasingly dominated by the likes of him, Sharon Angle, Sarah Palin (who tells her followers to "re-load") , Rand Paul, and Michelle ("be armed and dangerous," she menacingly says) Bachmann (Is extortion their new modus operandi)? The Republican Party has become unhinged.
The huge polluters, the Koch Brothers, have infused "astroturfs" and pseudo think tanks with over a hundred million dollars to write phony studies, spew false information, and stage phony populist events. They do this to expand their already gargantuan wealth. Rupert Murdoch has turned over his network to promote extremist Republicans (and Tea Parties), who know nothing about being republican, with a small "r." GOP insider and otherwise corporate shill, Dick Armey, fronts the ironically named "Freedom Works," which is really about multi-nationals operating unfettered. And Rick Scott, Columbia-HCA's former CEO "leads" "Conservatives for Patient Rights." He wanted to bleed profits out of patient care. Along the way he incurred the largest fine for corporate misdeeds ever levied upon a US corporation ($1.7 billion). For this he was fired. Now he wants to gut health care reform and end Social Security. AND he wants to be governor of Florida, a state's first Astroturf-in-Chief, running Florida of, for and by folks such as the Kochs. Nihilist Peter Peterson is nearly in a class by himself. But he too is funded by the Kochs. These are some of the folks behind the so-called Tea Party (and supposed deficit commission).
Uh, just a few problems with this ad (higher-quality version here): 1) attacking fellow Democrats - including Mark Warner, who's doing a fundraiser for Nye this evening, I'd point out - for voting "aye" on the "Wall Street Bailout" and also "aye" on health care reform, is not cool; 2) claiming to have voted against the health care bill because it "cost too much," when in fact the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said it cut the deficit by $1.3 trillion over 20 years, is fundamentally dishonest; and 3) claiming to have voted against the "Wall Street Bailout," when that vote actually took place in October 2008, BEFORE Nye was elected, is really really not cool. As Virginia Young Democrat Kristin Smith writes:
Why is Glenn Nye saying he voted against the Wall Street Bailout in his new TV ad when he wasn't even in office yet? Also, why does he keep insinuating that he's an "independent voice"? Nye stop backing away from the Democratic party before I back away from you
In general, I'd say that attacking members of your own party - and undercutting those fellow party members' talking points - simply because you're desperately trying to save your own skin, is not acceptable. But that's exactly what Glenn Ney is doing here. It needs to stop, immediately.
UPDATE: On Nye's supposed vote against the "Wall Street Bailout" (which, while unpopular, almost undoubtedly prevented a complete economic meltdown in the fall of 2008), perhaps he means this "symbolic" vote, which was "rendered...moot" by the Senate's defeat of "an identical resolution" (with Webb and Warner both voting "nay," by the way). So, technically Nye can say he "voted against the Wall Street Bailout," but only on a meaningless, symbolic vote long after the "bailout" was already signed into law by President Bush, and also after the U.S. Senate had already defeated an identical bill.
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I'm not sure what to make of SurveyUSA polls this cycle, as some of them have seemed wacky (e.g., in Virginia's 5th CD). With that caveat, 
Just as with polls done for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, it's hard to know what to make of polls commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee. With that disclaimer, 
Well, isn't 
Robert Hurt has a history of dodging debates. During the Republican primary, he was attacked by the Republican base for the same thing he's doing now--
