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Top 10 Reasons Why Virginia 2013 Will NOT Be Virginia 2009 All Over Again

by: lowkell

Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:36:58 AM EST

You know the saying about how generals always prepare to fight the last war, more than the next war? In my view, that applies to politics as well. For instance, here in Virginia, many Democrats I talk to appear to still be processing, one way or the other, the 2009 disaster, which ended up wiping out our party in the House of Delegates, not to mention electing Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, and Ken Cuccinelli to the #1, #2, and #3 slots in the Executive Branch of Virginia. The concern is that 2013 will be a repeat of 2009 in many ways, with another series of losses following a year in which Barack Obama yet again carried the state (as did Tim Kaine). Anyway, before we get ready to relive, if not fight, the "last war," here are my top 10 reasons why Virginia 2013 will not be the same as Virginia 2009.

1. Demographics continue to shift in Democrats' favor. As this report finds, for instance, "
Virginia continues 
alone falling
more than 
and 2010
" (from 77% to 68%). That trend is continuing, as only 53.6% of elementary school students in Virginia are white. Ultimately, that trend of about a 1-point-per-year drop (nearly 4 points between 2009 and 2013) in the share of Virginia that is white will show up at the polls big time. That can happen sooner, rather than later, if Democrats work hard to get out these new voters out to the polls, and obviously to vote Democratic, in 2013 and beyond.

2. Ken Cuccinelli is not Bob McDonnell. In 2009, Bob McDonnell managed to convince a lot of Virginians that his Regent University "thesis" was long in the past, that today all he really cares about is jobs, jobs, and jobs (hence the slogan, "Bob's for Jobs"). In the 2009 campaign, McDonnell played down hot-button social issues and portrayed himself as a moderate "soccer dad" from the 'burbs. He was able to do that in large part because his personality comes across as reasonable and moderate, even if his views aren't. In stark contrast, Ken Cuccinelli has been on the forefront in recent years, not decades ago, of the most hot button of hot-button issues - "Obamacare," climate science (which should NOT be politicized, but Kookinelli did so anyway), GLBT equality, women's reproductive freedom, you name it. Combined with a confrontational, in-your-face, my-way-or-the-highway, no-compromise style, Cuccinelli quickly became a hero of the "Tea Party" movement. Unfortunately for Cuccinelli, that also sets him up as THE perfect "villain" for Democrats to run against in 2013; truly, the dream candidate...for Democrats. Sure, Cuckoo will try to run to the center, but good luck with that; we've got his words, actions, etc. all recorded on video, audio, paper, electron, what have you, and by the end of the 2013 campaign, it's likely that every sentient Virginian will have seen TV ads letting reminding them of what a nutjob Kookinelli is.

lowkell :: Top 10 Reasons Why Virginia 2013 Will NOT Be Virginia 2009 All Over Again
3. The Tea Party ain't what it used to be. In 2009, the backlash against "spending," "Obamacare," "the debt," "socialism," a bad economy, etc, etc. was in overdrive, with the corporate media cravenly and irresponsibly going along for the ride (actually, the fomented much of it). Talk about a wave; 2009 was basically a tsunami, or to use another weather metaphor, Democrats had Superstorm Sandy blowing in their faces, while Republicans had those same winds pushing them ahead. In 2013? The Tea Party isn't dead, but it's a shell of what it was in 2009. More to the point, the forces that gave rise to the Tea Party in 2009 are not likely to be present in 2013, as the economy continues its recovery, Congress strikes a deal (or multiple deals) on the debt, the benefits of "Obamacare" become increasingly apparent, etc. Plus, Barack Obama is highly popular today, with something like a +10 net approval rating. In 2013, the weather looks likely to be calm, or possibly even a pleasant breeze at the backs of Democrats for a change, in Virginia. Quite a difference from 2009.

4. Terry McAuliffe is no Creigh Deeds. Whatever you think about Terry McAuliffe, in no way is he the 2013 equivalent of Creigh Deeds. For starters, McAuliffe is from suburban northern Virginia, the fastest growing part of the state, part of the Hampton Roads-Richmond-NOVA "urban/suburban/exurban crescent" that is key to Democratic success in Virginia, while Deeds was from rural Bath County, which is about as solid "red" as you can get (so much for "Deeds Country"). Second, Terry McAuliffe is likely to spend multiples of the $16 million Deeds spent in 2009. Third, as mentioned above, McAuliffe has an opponent who is an extreme figure by almost any evaluation, someone who will struggle to win independent voters, and who will motivate Democrats to turn out to the polls in droves to stop him. Finally, T-Mac is a much more dynamic speaker, also a much more partisan Democrat, which should again help him far outperform Deeds in revving up "the base." Again, 2013 will not be like 2009.

5. Republican governance has given us tons of material we can use in 2013. Since Bob McDonnell took office in 2010, Virginians have seen Republican governance in action, and it ain't pretty. From "transvaginal ultrasounds" to "personhood" to virulent anti-LGBT actions (e.g., the Republicans rejection of Tracy Thorne-Begland for a judgeship because of his sexual orientation), to an utter unwillingness to deviate from anti-tax orthodoxy while our state's transportation infrastructure falls apart, etc., we've got TONS of material to work with in 2013. Truly, it's like a gold mine of nuttiness and incompetence, and it's going to be fun watching T-Mac pound them on it. :)

6. Our surrogates beat their surrogates. Who have they got to serve as "surrogates" for Ken Cuccinelli? Well, they don't have any U.S. Senators, so forget that. Eric Cant'or is a wildly unpopular figure in Virginia, so forget that. Bob McDonnell is fairly popular, but I strongly doubt he has any love for Ken Cuccinelli. Bill Bolling is no Ken Cuccinelli fan, that's for sure. Non-Virginians like Rick Santorum and Paul Ryan and Jim DeMint and Nikki Haley and Rand Paul have appeal to the same Tea Party base that Cooch does, but their hard-right views certainly won't appeal to many moderates or independents. Oh yeah, we also have the newly-reeelected President Obama and VP Joe Biden, plus the wildly popular former President Bill Clinton and the even-more-popular Hillary Clinton, plus Virginia's two most popular politicians - Mark Warner and Tim Kaine - and Jim Webb and... Yeah, I'll take our surrogates over their surrogates any day. WIN!

7. Democrats are more united than Republicans this time around. In 2009, Republicans were on fire, totally united in their opposition to their  false, absurd, laughable - but widely held among the Faux "News" watchers and Rush Limbaugh dittoheads - image of President Obama. This time around, Virginia Republicans have nothing like that to rally around, and meanwhile their party is experiencing turbulence over the rise of Ken Cuccinelli and the hard right/Tea Party wing, along with the purge of Bill Bolling and the more traditional/conservative Republicans. Plus, Bolling and Kookinelli simply despise each other. Meanwhile, Democrats should be about as united as they ever can be, "cats" that they are, against Ken Cuccinelli. And given no primary contest, T-Mac can spend the next few months consolidating that unity, while Cuccinelli can continue getting into fights with leading figures in his own party, most recently House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Gotta love it.

8. Virginia Democrats (presumably) have learned their lessons from the "last war". After the 2008 election's great victories, many Democrats went to sleep politically, assuming (as I mistakenly did) that the mission was accomplished. Meanwhile, Republicans got to work building their opposition movement, totally misguided and hysterical though it was. This time around, Virginia Democrats presumably don't need to be reminded too often what happened in 2009, the last time we had a gubernatorial election where our side was asleep and the right wing was wide awake.

9. DPVA will have new leadership. This can only be good news, and I'm very much looking forward to an improved Democratic Party of Virginia in 2013 compared to 2009.

10. The Republican convention process will pull their candidates even FURTHER to the right and out of the mainstream. The shift from a primary to a convention on the GOP side means that hard-edged, far-right-wing "conservatism" (in quotes because really the Cuccinellis and Snyders of the world are more John Birch Society than traditional conservative, let alone Country Club Republican or moderate/Eisenhower Republican) will be in charge in 2013. Watch for Republican candidates, particularly the 7 (seven!) running for LG, to outdo each other in terms of "teh crazy," whether we're talking about advocating the abolition of contraception and abortion in all cases, the imposition of theocracy on Virginia, making life hell for LGBT citizens, deporting every "illegal" back to where they came from, demonizing "Obamacare," ranting about (non-existent) voter fraud, denying climate science, etc, etc. This should be entertaining to watch. Lots more popcorn in 2013 than in 2009 - enjoy! :)

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Turnout is Key (0.00 / 0)
You make some great points and I agree that this race will be extremely different from 2009. The one concern I have is turnout. It's always much lower and let's be honest, Cuccinelli is the darling of the tea party. He's going to get them fired up and turnout from the Repub base is likely to be high. We need to make sure T-Mac can do the same for our base.  

Yes (0.00 / 0)
Yes. Turnout will be the key. If we get a 40-44% voter turnout, then it will be bad for Democrats. (Specific example: The city of Roanoke is true-blue. The average turnout, even in presidential years is hardly 60%. The Shenandoah Valley area has a greater population than Roanoke and turns out anywhere from 60-75% for presidential and statewide elections.) The key will be for Terry to set up a great ground game in order to insure "Democrats work hard to get these new voters out to the polls, and obviously to vote Democratic, in 2013 and beyond," as Lowell points out.

I don't envy the new team taking over the DPVA. They will have to create order out of chaos and functionality out of dysfunction that has been compounded by years of incompetence.

I am very optimistic about the long term in Virginia, as long as Republicans seem to be intractable in what they stand for; that said, we should never forget that 2008 and 2012 were victories produced by the well-oiled Obama campaign machine. In 2013, it's all up to us.  

[ Parent ]
Agree (0.00 / 0)
I see this as turnout driven.  I've been around politics since the 1970's.  There is always this myth about 'machines' and 'ground game', etc.  Fact is, unless you deliver people the way we used to in Chicago (in the Mayor Dick Daley days), they must be motivated in some way to show up and vote.  With Obama, he is the draw.  Plain and simple.  He was a unique candidate coming at a time that was perfect.  I am still sick about losing those gains we made in 2008 when our real base finally decided to actually vote.  That election showed us all what we are capable of.  It also showed us, in 2010, what happens when we go to sleep or rest on our laurels.  Our never ending lack of organization played right into Republican hands.

In a nutshell, in case anyone hasn't figured it out yet, the OFA ground game focused on identification of Democratic voters, and, through constant email and other contact, were able to whittle down those voters prospects at turning out to vote.  From there, it was making calls, etc.  OFA focused and went to work.  There was no magic to it.  Having the OFA lists may help, but in many cases the Obama voter is his voter.  They need convincing to vote for someone else.  The same goes for Sen Webb, or Sen Warner or Sen Kaine.  Or even Rep. Moran, et al.  If I was running TM's campaign those are the lists I'd go for, as they all have a different 'type' voter.  Letting them know you care, and keeping their interest by paying attention to issues they care about is the other end of a max turnout and 'ground-game'.

Again, I keep finding myself babbling on about GOTV operations and who can do it and how.  I would like to see what TM plans to do and how he will manage to convince voters to vote in 2013.  Not for the President. For him.

[ Parent ]
Excellent Points (0.00 / 0)
To me, the weakness right now that McAuliffe has is the very thing you point out: he doesn't have a built-in attraction to draw out the Democratic voters who come out in presidential years. In fact, the entire Democratic ticket as it is shaping up lacks special appeal to voters under 40, Hispanics, Blacks. Getting women out to vote should be easy, but only if Cuccinelli is defined as the extremist he is before the Rovian machine has a chance to define T-Mac.

You are right that simply having the OFA voter lists won't work by itself. I was part of the effort in my locality by OFA and saw the efficiency and hard work of the team up close and personal. How hard was that work? I'll use my daughter, who lives in a small town in New Hampshire as an example. OFA knew that they could win New Hampshire, even though Romney called himself a part-time resident. She was identified early on as an Obama supporter. By Election Day,she had been canvassed four times. On Election Day, there was a door hanger reminding her to vote and telling her where her precinct was. (In 2008, for the first time ever on Election Day, I got a door hanger with the same information on it. That's organization...)

Jim Webb won his election because of an "army" volunteers who believed in him. Mark Warner uniquely appealed (and  still appeals) to independents and the few normal Republicans left in the party. Tim Kaine was a popular governor and simply a fantastically nice man. McAuliffe? He needs to really work to define himself before he gets defined by the opposition. Most Virginians don't know him, except as a Friend of Bill.

The very best thing I see going for us right now is the fact that Bill Bolling was treated so shabbily. That will  cause a rift in the GOP ranks. Plus, it will be very interesting to see how Bolling behaves in the upcoming General Assembly session. McDonnell didn't think of how Bolling is his 21st vote in the State Senate when he was so quick to endorse Cooch.

[ Parent ]
The direct appeal delivers (0.00 / 0)
Sal, as a fellow displaced Chicagoan, I know exactly what you mean.  Chicago Dems were organized down to the precinct level and we had a precinct captain who would periodically knock on our door to say hi and see what was on our minds.  Compare that to the distant, disconnected DPVA.

You have to appeal to voters and do so directly.  Just blasting ads isn't enough.  

But it is a lot harder for a relative unknown like Terry.  When I was canvassing for Obama, we passed out a door hanger that also had a picture of Tim Kaine and asked people to vote for him too.  You'd be surprised how many Obama voters squinted their eyes and said "Who?"  It's going to take a lot of work to introduce Terry to the voters with a positive enough impression to motivate them to go to the polls for him.  

For a Sustainable Virginia. Now on Twitter.

[ Parent ]
With respect to your item 9, we now have one of our own .... (0.00 / 0)
BV leaders in a DPVA leadership position. I just read the agenda for the Sat. Central Committee agenda and post CC adjournment events. I was very pleased to read that this year's noon Technology Committee meeting lists as the POC Dave Leichtman. The footnotes below this meeting announcement says "The Technology Committee will be discussing how 2012 technology can be leveraged to help General Assembly races and small committees ... for integrated tech in VA". Finally, we have a BV contributor/leader who can help modernize how the DPVA communicates and assists candidates, not to mention push the DPVA to at long last make sure that everything posted on the DPVA web site is updated frequently to make the info. close to real-time.

I'm sure Dave will also give the BV readers a thorough report on the Sat. round table discussions, as well as other Steering Committee and Central Committee meeting discussions. Again, Dave's Central Committee membership and his role with the Technology Committee is a big plus for us and the DPVA.


Thanks, Tom (0.00 / 0)
I'll be happy to report back on the inaugural Tech Committee meeting. I'm really excited to have a bunch of the Tech Directors of local committees (of which I am one) joining in Williamsburg, as well as Aneesh Chopra, Tech Vice Chair Craig Fifer, and Deputy ED for Tech Brenner Tobe. We'll be discussing how we can leverage the group's talent and knowledge to assist House races around VA and coordinate with the statewides. Shout out to BV community members Todd Smyth and Jim Southworth who have been amazing contributors to the effort. I think we have something good going on here. And if you're interested in joining the effort, just let me know.

[ Parent ]
@013 Election (0.00 / 0)
I agree with most of your points.  And I'm not commissioning a circular firing squad.  Again, my problem is turnout and if Terry Mc has the firepower needed to make people get out and vote.  The only people who are fired up to vote against him are, basically, women and his enemies in his party. I keep seeing people staying home or giving the race casual attention.  TM, to me, has no real base in the state.  He's from here in NOVA, but no one knows who he is.  The GOP, if it has the money, will spend a lot on branding him as a carpetbagger, a Clinton nut, a guy from the 'liberal' fringe who will turn the state over to all of those 'takers' out there (code word, I know).  Since most Virginians don't know TM, but most know the AG, he is wide open for a Karl Rove-ish 'paint the Democrat' campaign.  I'm surprised they haven't started on him already.

I don't know, I'm just seeing far to many negatives for TM without many solid positives.  I just don't see him as a guy who will get it done.  Isn't there anyone else out there who would be a better choice?  This fait acompli (sp) nomination isn't vetting candidates and promoting them at all.  

1. Demography Isn't Destiny (0.00 / 0)
Demographics won't impact who actually turns out and votes. Turnout among Hispanics is much lower in a state like Texas where our state party is so weak it can't organize properly. In states like California the turnout lags, but it's a lot closer. Campaigns make the difference.

I like how... (0.00 / 0)
I like how #2, #5, and #10 require running against GOP extremism, while at the same time #4, #8, and #9 profess a change from what lost in 2009.

Deeds didn't run effectively for OR against (0.00 / 0)
anything. In general, though, of course campaigns do both all the time - run against their opponent(s) and simultaneously for themselves. It's standard politics, if you hadn't noticed...

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[ Parent ]
2. The Cooh Is Battle Tested (0.00 / 0)
No, Cuccinelli isn't Bob. He comes from Northern Virgina and has a history of managing to survive in difficult terrain. This makes him more formidable.  

3. Tea Party Zombies (0.00 / 0)
Let's see what happens with the "fiscal cliff" and the debt ceiling before ruling on the Tea Party. Oh, and immigration reform. You may think they are dead, but they could come back.

4. Terry's Problems (0.00 / 0)
No, Terry isn't Creigh Deeds. But he's not your usual Northern Virginia suburbanite either. He's a wheeler dealer political insider who will also have to work hard to connect to voters. His challenges are different than Deeds, but they are still challenges.

5. We're Getting Better (0.00 / 0)
The economy is improving. Virginians are going to be happy with the direction of the state. This isn't because of Republican policies, but don't rule out the strength an economic comeback will provide the incumbent party in Richmond.

6. Trickle Down Politics? (0.00 / 0)
Surrogates don't vote. People vote. We've had wonderful surrogates like Warner and Kaine for some time. It didn't trickle down in 2003. Or 2009. Or even 2011. We've had success at times, but surrogates alone don't swing elections.

7. We Are Divided (0.00 / 0)
Public polling on the Governor's race already show more Democrats defecting away from Terry than Republicans defecting away from Cuccinelli.

9. Republicans Never Sleep (0.00 / 0)
Republicans are leaning their lessons from 2012 as we speak. Just being aware than an election is coming is hardly a vote of confidence for our side.

This Should be 8. Oops. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Real 9. DPVA Is Structural (0.00 / 0)
It's nice to blame the DPVA for all of the problems in Virginia, but the problems are structural, it's not enough to just rearrange the people in the offices. The DPVA will be a coordinated arm of the statewide campaigns next year. Problems in beefing up the state party overall, particularly the House caucus, will linger.

10. Mainstream Compared to What? (0.00 / 0)
I think Bob McDonnell is out of the mainstream, but he was right in the mainstream of the folks that turned out to vote in 2009. It's all relative. If making life hell for LGBT citizens is so unpopular among the state turnout crowd, why aren't our state legislators pushing to repeal the Marshall-Newman Amendment?

Great points (0.00 / 0)
In fact, basic likeability may be the deciding factor.  Even I can't help liking Bob McDonnell personality-wise even though I can't think of one single positive thing he's accomplished.  

Cuccinelli by contrast is nails on the chalkboard.  As with Romney, I get the impression that he's not well liked by his fellow Republicans, to put it mildly.  

For a Sustainable Virginia. Now on Twitter.

Number 1.a. The dems have the best GOTV position for the 2012 voters! (0.00 / 0)
Cooch sued Obama to overturn Obamacare.

It really is that simple..  Say it loud and say it often!


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