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13 Fearless (Foolhardy?) Predictions for 2012

by: lowkell

Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 07:04:19 AM EST


Here are a "baker's dozen" predictions, fearless and/or foolhardy (and mostly all Virginia related in some way) for 2012. They are mostly by me, but they're also based on input from other Blue Virginia "front pagers." Feel free to add your own predictions in the comments section. Thanks, and Happy New Year!

1. The U.S. economy continues to recover, in part as Europe avoids meltdown. The unemployment rate drops below 8% by election day 2012.
2. Willard "Mitt" Romney easily wins the Republican nomination for president, as the anti-"Mitt"s fail to coalesce around one legitimate candidate (and no, Ron Paul isn't a legitimate Republican candidate).
3. Either Ron Paul (although he's damaged goods due to all the past racist, anti-Semitic, etc. writings) or egomaniac loony-tunes Donald Trump -- or another right-wing Tea Party type -- runs as a third-party candidate, in addition to Libertarian Gary Johnson, winning votes from conservatives and others on the right unhappy with flippin'-but-formerly-to-the-left-of-Ted-Kennedy, Willard "Mitt" Romney.
4. In large part because of #1-#3, Barack Obama is reelected president of the United States by a comfortable margin (3-5 percentage points), although not as big a landslide as in 2008.
5. Obama wins Virginia again, albeit by a more narrow margin than last time around, thanks to a huge margin in Northern Virginia, heavy turnout by African Americans and Latinos, and OFA's organizing ability - but NO thanks to DPVA.
6. Mitt Romney selects Bob McDonnell as his running mate, but loses Virginia to Obama-Biden anyway.
7. A sunny, upbeat, likable, forward-looking, reality-based Tim Kaine defeats snarling, nasty, divisive, backwards-looking, science-denying George "Felix Macacawitz" Allen, 53%-47%. Allen goes back to lobbying full time (and for a ton of cash!) for the people destroying our planet and keeping us addicted to fossil fuels.

lowkell :: 13 Fearless (Foolhardy?) Predictions for 2012
8. Democrats and Republicans end up tied for control of the U.S. Senate. Vice President Biden breaks the ties, but the Senate remains largely paralyzed as it has been for several years now (thanks to Republican abuse of the filibuster, mainly).
9. Democrats come very close, but fall just short of taking back the U.S. House of Representatives. Watch your back, John Boehner, as Eric Can'tor mounts a coup attempt for Speaker!
10. The Supreme Court does NOT rule the individual mandate as unconstitutional, although with some sort of wishy washy language that falls far short of a definitive ruling and leaves it as a live political issue. Whatever the exact decision, the Supreme Court case reminds people, in the middle of a presidential election eyar, that the mandate was originally a conservative, Republican idea (supported by Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, etc.), an alternative to "Hillarycare"'s employer mandate. Ken Kookinelli throws a temper tantrum, ranting and raving about King George, "First Principles," blah blah blah.
11. In part due to the DPVA's utter dysfunction, there will be no serious Democratic candidates opposing Morgan Griffith, Robert Hurt, or Eric Can'tor.
12. Newt Gingrich is NOT on the Republican ballot in the Virginia primary, but he nonetheless manage s to (mis)use a few more absurd historical analogies (in addition to "Pearl Harbor") to express how this is the WORST thing in the history of the world!!! LOL
13. Budget and tax battles continue all year, at the end of which, a reelected President Obama's leverage  - due to the imminent expiration of the Bush tax cuts, as well as budget cuts slated to kick in automatically - leads to a grand bargain of sorts (this may be the final straw for Boehner, or Can'tor's "Nixon goes to China" move, which Boehner lacked the credibility with Tea Party to pull off).  
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I like them; I agree with most of them (0.00 / 0)
These are the ones that I disagree with:

* Conservative backlash on Mitt Romney.

Yes, he was a liberal Republican, and yes, he is a Mormon, but I feel that most GOP voters hate even more having an African American president, so they may end up rallying behind him, because if it is between the two "not-Christian" "liberals", they are going to favor the white one over the black one.

* Ron Paul  as GOP spoiler

Ron Paul will take away the libertarian true-believer vote from GOP, but he won't attract most conservative voters. He is too "liberal" for them in foreign policy and civil liberties. Ron Paul's third-party candidate run may be a greater threat to Obama since he is capturing idealistic youth following. Hopefully the racist connection will be enough to turn them off. Another one to wait and see.


Addendum (4.00 / 2)
Prediction: Ron Paul either wins or comes in at near tie with Romney in Iowa caucuses. That propels him to a close second in New Hampshire, where GOPers have a large libertarian streak ("Live free or die"). That will give him some momentum in South Carolina, which started the Civil War after all. Then, he stalls out, but he has already harmed the Flip-Flop King by exposing the ultimate divide in the Republican Party: the old-style, small federal government and isolationist wing vs the militaristic, social control freaks of the far right. What will Mitt become? Will he be the "New Mitt" of the far right or the "Old Mitt" who can appeal to Independents by being "Democratic light" or the "third way Mitt" who emulates Coolidge and appeals to the Ron Paul libertarians?

Prediction: The Democrats take control of the House, but only by a hair. The Senate either barely stays in Democratic control or barely Republican control, but either way continues to be the definition of gridlock (No wonder Jim Webb wants out. He's a man of contemplation yet also of action. As he once said, "Watching the Senate is like watching an aquarium.")

Prediction: The right candidates could beat both Morgan Griffith (a Phil Puckett type) and Robert Hurt (someone willing to work as hard as Tom Perriello in 2008). Even so, there will be no viable candidate in either district.


My take on modern libertarians (0.00 / 0)
Is that most of them are non-bigoted conservatives, so when push comes to shove, they go with the GOP.

[ Parent ]
VA Supreme Court... (0.00 / 0)
...throws out Cuccinelli subpoenas of Prof. Michael Mann, ruling that conspiracy theories are inadequate grounds for accusing a scientist of criminal fraud.  Hopefully orders state to pay U-VA's court costs, as a way to discourage future AGs from engaging in any similar attempted assaults on academic free speech.  

For a Sustainable Virginia. Now on Twitter.

There are already two announced candidates vs Cantor (0.00 / 0)
Depending on how the district lines work out they may or may not be truly serious opponents. But if I were a betting person, I'd bet on Cantor having at least one serious opponent, especially given Dem gains in Henrico.

I sure hope you're right! (0.00 / 0)
n/t

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[ Parent ]
Here's what I posted on Too Stupid (0.00 / 0)
I mean, Too Conservative.

Romney will win the VA Republican primary
Obama will win re-election with over 300 electoral votes and about 4-5% on the overall vote.
I think Dems will barely hold the Senate, something like 51-49
Dems will pick up a net 10-12 seats in the House but Republicans will retain comfortable control.
But, the Republican party will effectively split in 2013 so it won't really matter.
Loudoun Dems will not be an issue in 2012 since OFA will be spending around 40-50 million dollars in Virginia, and Loudoun will be jam packed with volunteers and organizers who will have no idea what LCDC is. And that's a very good thing.
The economy will improve better than at least the last 4 years, which is a low bar to pass.
The Supreme Court will get cold feet and effectively punt a true decision on individual mandate that narrowly "allows" it with caveats to future legislation.
I don't live in Whiteflightistan, so I could care less about internet access, schools or anything else in Loudoun. But, like everyone else in Fairfax, I would love it if you would all stop your f...ing whining about everything.


Possible Hope for House (0.00 / 0)
The Democrats need 25 seats to regain the House of Representatives. There are 60 districts with Republicans that were carried by Barack Obama in 2008, including 15 in districts that Obama carried by 10+ points. There are far fewer districts that John McCain carried that have Republican representatives. The Dems have a pretty good shot to pick up 26-28 seats, and that's all it takes, so I have hope. The generic polls also have registered voters blaming the GOP for the gridlock in DC by a wide margin.

[ Parent ]
Error (0.00 / 0)
Should be McCain carried district with Democratic reprsentatives

[ Parent ]
Big-time gerrymandering is going to blunt most of that (0.00 / 0)
The Republicans have crafted extremely effective maps in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and are attempting to do the same in Florida by basically giving the finger to the fair redistricting amendment that passed there recently. They've cut down the competitiveness of a lot of the districts they picked up in 2010, and are probably going to knock out another 7-8 Democrats with those maps alone.

[ Parent ]
And they refuse to call us "democratic"? (0.00 / 0)
I hope the Justice Dept continues to challenge all forms of vote suppression.  

For a Sustainable Virginia. Now on Twitter.

[ Parent ]
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The purpose of Blue Virginia is to cover Virginia politics from a progressive and Democratic perspective. This is a group blog and a community blog. We invite everyone to comment here, but please be aware that profanity, personal attacks, bigotry, insults, rudeness, frequent unsupported or off-point statements, "trolling" (NOTE: that includes outright lies, whether about climate science, or what other people said, or whatever), and "troll ratings abuse" (e.g., "troll" rating someone simply because you disagree with their argument) are not permitted and, if continued, will lead to banning. For more on trolling, see the Daily Kos FAQs. Also note that diaries may be deleted if they do not contain at least 2 solid paragraphs of original text; if not, please use the comments section of a relevant diary. For more on writing diaries, click here. Thanks, and enjoy!

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