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Three NOVA Obama/Kaine Counties that Need to Stop Going "Red" in Other Years

by: lowkell

Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 12:35:48 PM EST

Just 13 days ago, Virginia went "blue" for the second straight presidential election cycle, this time going for Barack Obama (D) over Willard "Mitt" Romney (R) by 4 points, and for Tim Kaine (D) over George Allen (R) by 6 points. In the process, Obama and Kaine carried many of the largest Virginia localities - Fairfax County, Loudoun County, Prince William County, Arlington County, Henrico County, Richmond, Norfolk, Newport News, Albemarle County, Portsmouth, Roanoke, Suffolk, etc. (also Virginia Beach in the case of Kaine; Obama came very close but didn't quite win it).

In many of these places, Obama's and Kaine's victories weren't even close, but were by wide margins (e.g., 20 points in Fairfax County, 16 points in Prince William County, 12-16 points in Henrico). Yet what's striking is that, despite the "blue" dominance of most large Virginia localities during presidential years, there are an awful lot of Republicans in power in these same places on county boards and in the Virginia General Assembly. Two localities in particular jumped right out at me for their glaring discrepancies between how they voted in 2012 and who represents them at the county and state levels the rest of the time.

Loudoun County: The Board of Supervisors is ALL Republican (including the rabid homophobic wackjob Eugene Delgaudio), despite the county going by 5 points for Obama and 6 points for Kaine this November. At the state level, it's not so hot either, with one total nutjob Republican (State Sen. Dick Black) and another right winger (State Sen. Jill Vogel), plus a slew of Republicans in the House of Delegates (Thomas "Tag" Greason, Joe May, Jim LeMunyon, Tom Rust, Randy Minchew, David Ramadan). That leaves just two Democrats representing Loudoun County - State Senator Mark Herring, who's running for Attorney General in 2013; and State Senator Barbara Favola, who represents just a tiny sliver of Loudoun County. What on earth is going on here?!?

lowkell :: Three NOVA Obama/Kaine Counties that Need to Stop Going "Red" in Other Years

Prince William County: It's 6-2 Republican on the County Board of Supervisors, despite Prince William County going by a landslide (16 points each) for Barack Obama and Tim Kaine in November 2012. That board is headed up by Corey Stewart, notorious for his "illegal" immigrant bashing, even though Prince William County is now a "majority-minority" county. WTF? And as if that's not absurd enough, Prince William County also has a bunch of Republicans (mis)representing it in Richmond (7 of 8 Republicans in the House of Delegates, including some truly godawful ones like "Sideshow" Bob Marshall (see NLS' excellent analysis of his district), David Ramadan and Jackson Miller; 2 of 5 Republicans in the State Senate, including the extremist nutjob Dick Black).

Fairfax County: The County Board's in pretty good shape, and the State Senate delegation is all-"blue," so that's fine. Still, given that this county went by 20 points or so for Obama/Kaine, Fairfax definitely needs to be a LOT "bluer" than it currently is in the House of Delegates. A few Republicans who badly need to say "sayonara" in 2013 include: Barbara Comstock, Tim Hugo, Dave Albo, Jim LeMunyon, and Tom Rust. So, who do we have challenging these people?

Obviously, this situation needs to change, and it needs to change starting next year! How to do this? First of all, the Democratic "powers that be" all should be busting their butts right now recruiting top-notch candidate to run in every single "Obama/Kaine" House of Delegates district in these three counties. Second, the Democratic "powers that be" need to provide whatever help those candidates need next year. Third, the Democratic "powers that be" need to be developing a plan right away aimed at getting out "Obama coalition" voters (young, Latino, African American, Asian American, women) in "odd-year" elections such as 2013, not just when a presidential or top-notch U.S. Senate campaign like Tim Kaine's swings into town (or in this case, county). Is any of this being done? Got me. Can we win without it? Highly unlikely. Can we win WITH it? Seems like a no-brainer to me. So, what am I missing here?

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Defeat by Vogel... (0.00 / 0)
You are absolutely right.

So True (0.00 / 0)
You make a great point. Virginia has definitely become a "purple state" but could deepen it's shade of blue if we can effectively recruit candidates in these districts where Democrats could win.

Absolutely right (0.00 / 0)
I think we need two things to win in the off years:

1) Put compelling, diverse, exciting candidates on the ballot.  And guess what -- that means not always deferring to the incumbents until they're in 80s, but knowing when to gently push them aside.  And in some cases, challenging them if they don't step aside -- as needs to happen with my state senator, right-wing gas station owner and clean energy opponent Dick Saslaw.

2) Duplicate as best we can the Obama turnout operation.  But if we don't do number #1, is this really going to work?

For a Sustainable Virginia. Now on Twitter.

Both of those are important, but it also has to be about the issues. (0.00 / 0)
We experienced in 2009, 2010, and 2011 the low turnout.  Candidates running away from Obama.   The key is an overall message by all dem organization that ties to the VA legislature.  Make the republicans own their legislation.

Women rights, the hold up with the AHA (obamacare) at the state level, the defunding of higher education, the lack of accepting fed $ for transportation, on and on.

[ Parent ]
Hampton (0.00 / 0)
I feel compelled to add the City of Hampton to the list of cities in which Obama and Kaine won in landslide proportions. Shout out to Hampton Democrats for a 71-28 route of Mitt and Felix!

Might add...keep the va senate dems out of the hod races (0.00 / 0)
I believe there has been some major behind the scenes recruitment for HOD candidates after the debacle in 2011.   The biggest obstacle is the dem incumbents in the senate...many had hissy fits because they did not want high turnout in their rep precincts with contested races...this right after they screwed the pooch in redistricting.

Everybody is jumping behind the new,y annoited dpva chair, I myself i will be holding any support, until I see declared candidates for 2013 races.

Best Solution (0.00 / 0)
We should save money and free the people of Virginia from endless campaign cycles by moving all these races to the midterm. Senate seats as well as Governor, LG, and AG. Line it up with Maryland. Localities can keep their odd year local elections if they want, but it's pointless to have elections on such an odd schedule compared to neighboring states.

I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat.

~Will Rogers

Turn Virginia Blue 2013 (0.00 / 0)

Democrats Running in these Races so far:

Jennifer Boysko Democrat
Boysko for Delegate - Jennifer
940 Locust St
Herndon, VA 20170

is running for the House of Delegates in 2013.
Against Incumbent Tom Rust R-86

Ed Deitsch Democrat
(703) 644-1879

is running for the House of Delegates in 2013.
against Dave Albo R-42

These Blue Counties need Blue Representation!

Loudoun County:
Randy Minchew R-10

Thomas "Tag" Greason R-32

Joe T. May R-33

Jim LeMunyon R-67

Tom Rust R-86 vs Jennifer Boysko Democrat 2013

David Ramadan R-87

Prince William County:
Mark Dudenhefer R-2

"Sideshow" Bob Marshall R-13

Scott Lingamfelter R-31

Jackson Miller R-50

Fairfax County:
Barbara Comstock R-34

Tim Hugo R-40

Dave Albo R-42 vs Ed Deitsch Democrat

Also Close I think based on 2010 election results:

Franklin Country:
Charles Poindexter R-9

Montgomery County
Joseph Yost R-12

Fauquier County
Michael Webert R-18

Botetourt County - Bedford County
Lacey Putney I-19

Virginia Beach City
Ron Villanueva R-21

Harrisonburg City
Tony Wilt R-26

Chesterfield County
Roxann Robinson R-27

Campbell County - Appomattox County
Matt Fariss R-59

Chesterfield County
Riley Ingram R-62

Isle of Wight County
Richard Morris R-64

Suffolk City
Chris Jones R-76

Chesapeake City
John Cosgrove R-78

Virginia Beach City - Chesapeake City
Barry Knight R-81

Virginia Beach City
Bob Purkey R - 82

Virginia Beach City - Norfolk City
Chris Stolle R-83

Virginia Beach City
Sal Iaquinto R-84

Virginia Beach City
Patrick S Salyer R-85

Hampton City
Gordon Helsel R-91

Newport News City
Michael Watson R-93

Based on Results:

31 possible Democratic pickups  in The Virginia House in 2013
(18 needed for 50-50)

contested in 2010 (close races)
15 Districts: 2, 9, 10, 12, 13, 18, 19, 21, 31, 34, 59, 64, 67, 87, 93

uncontested in 2010 (Low Republican Turnout)
10 Districts:  26, 27, 62, 76, 78, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85

Also in Blue Counties or Cities:
6 Districts: 33, 40, 42, 50, 86, 91

Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2011

House of Delegates 2011 makup

Virginia District Maps

Correction 2011 not 2010 (0.00 / 0)
Also Close I think based on 2011 election results...

[ Parent ]

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