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Quinnipiac Poll: McAuliffe Tops Both Cuccinelli and Bolling by Narrow Margins

by: lowkell

Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:59:48 AM EST


Forget the Warner part, as from everything I hear, he's not going to be a candidate for governor next year (note that only 18% of Virginians want Warner to run in 2013). Instead, let's focus on who the Democratic gubernatorial candidate is actually going to be - Terry McAuliffe. On that front, the news is generally good: McAuliffe tops Bill Bolling by 2 points (38%-36%) among Virginia registered voters (RVs) and bests Ken Kookinelli by 4 points (41%-37%). Of course, these results are among RVs, and usually what happens in off-year elections in Virginia is that the Democratic base tends to show up in relatively lower numbers than the Republican base, compared to presidential years. That's why Virginia's becoming a "blue" state in presidential years, but is still a "purple" state in gubernatorial years and a "red" state in off-off election years (e.g., 2015). Thus, the key for Democrats in 2013 will be to motivate their base to turn out in far larger numbers than we saw in 2009, when the Deeds campaign took the base for granted and hunkered down in "Deeds Country" (which they lost badly regardless - brilliant strategy, huh?).

Other findings from the poll that jumped out at me include:

*The vast majority (68%) of Virginians say they "haven't heard enough" of Terry McAuliffe to have a "favorable" or "unfavorable" view. As a political junkie, that once again reminds me that I am not "normal," in that most Virginians don't pay a great deal of attention to politics. We'll see what happens as Virginians become better acquainted with T-Mac, who presumably will be introduced in large part by the highly popular Bill Clinton.
*Also, despite the fact that he's our state's Attorney General, and also has been EXTREMELY (in both senses of that word) high profile, with his lawsuits against "Obamacare," UVA, etc., Ken Cuccinelli is STILL an unknown quantity by 45% of Virginians. We'll see what millions of dollars in advertising letting people know what a far-far-far-right-wing extremist this guy is will do to that number.
*Almost nobody knows who Bill Bolling is, which is not surprising, given how irrelevant he is. I mean, if the Vice Presidency of the United States was once compared to a bucket of warm spit (actually, it was another bodily fluid...yellowish in color), how about the equivalent in Virginia? LOL
*As usual, Mark Warner is by far the most popular politician in Virginia (60%-25%, +35 points approval rating). In contrast, Jim Webb has just a 44%-28% (+16 points) approval rating. My guess is that this is mostly about Warner getting out and around Virginia, while Webb mostly avoids doing so. In terms of their voting records, they're not much different.
*Virginians like Barack Obama, giving him a 52%-44% approval rating. Who doesn't like Obama? Basically, old, white, married, male, born-again/evangelicals. Who likes Obama? Basically everyone else.
*It is utterly absurd that only 29% of Virginians disapprove of Ken Cuccinelli's handling of his job as AG. That number should be 100%, frankly, just on his witch hunt against climate scientist Michael Mann, let alone on his other wild goose chases and failures.
*Finally, Virginians are optimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as president, but do NOT trust Republicans in Congress to "make a good faith effort to cooperate with President Obama and the Democrats on issues that are important to you." My fellow Virginians are absolutely right about that one!

lowkell :: Quinnipiac Poll: McAuliffe Tops Both Cuccinelli and Bolling by Narrow Margins
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Yea! (0.00 / 0)
Here's the difference between 2009 and 2013, terry will engage both democrats and independents.  And not take NOVA presidential year turnout for granted.

Gah! (0.00 / 0)
I bet ya Cuccinelli will try to pull a McDonnell and say how he's a "moderate".  

The commercials still write themselves (0.00 / 0)
Before, it was hard to see him caring about more than himself, seeing as how his ties to the state seemed, to the layperson, tenuous at best (he has a house here and fundraised, do those outside the DPVA circles care?). Now he's tried to put down business roots here, but he ended up building a factory in Mississippi. I've brought this up to people the past 2 years and usually gotten the response that he'd use that to make an indictment of the current governor not having the right state business environment...but that doesn't work when he chose a much more conservative state over VA ("the Republicans didn't create a good climate! So I went with a state run by...Republicans"). There's too much explaining involved trying to spin out of that line of attack, which will more than likely be used.

His ID is low statewide, so without a serious offensive to neutralize this (how?), he risks being defined as a carpetbagger (which is already one of his most common descriptors in some corners). I admit, he's probably the last kind of candidate I'd like to support on a personal level, but if this is what I've got, then it's what I've got.

I'm going to have a lot of heartburn this upcoming year. I know he's got plenty to take care of and he's had some tough times family-wise this past year with the death of his father, but I wish Chap had run.

I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat.

~Will Rogers


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