A Virginia Bellwether for the Elections

by: Dan Sullivan

Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 14:48:15 PM EDT

"It's not that I'm leaving the Republican Party; it's that the Republican Party left me ... me and many other moderates," Gordon said in his announcement. "It aspired to be a big-tent party; but now it is dominated and exclusive to the tea party and folks with a very conservative social agenda." - Richmond Times Dispatch

So while the Republicans have been pandering to the know-nothing wing for two decades, they have driven those broader minded, more representative of the American electorate, to the curb. Concurrently they have touted a "big tent" welcome mat in an effort to attract a broader base of, well, non-whites. But is it sincere? After expressing frustration that more minorities have not joined the cause during a Virginia Beach appearance last spring, George Allen brushed off an African American member of the audience who commented that he might be able to explain how to help. Allen simply deflected the offer by telling him that he was interested; "see me afterwards..." Not interested or competent enough to share an unscripted conversation publicly. No, that's way too dangerous terrain for George. And there is nothing to demonstrate that Allen or many other Republicans are interested in anything but the votes.

It is a wild card for GOTV. A lot of these Republicans, though remaining self-identified as Republicans, will not be motivated to vote for Romney. If they do, they may have seen through George Allen's simple minded façade. This is an odd situation. Only recently have these two really "teamed up" and in an unusual way, this may turn out bad for both Romney and Allen. If they are "gotten out" these may not be reliable Romney voters. And for Tim Kaine, it could deliver Republican crossover voters to the polls.

Lowell has consistently looked askance at and with appreciation toward Allen's strategy of tying Kaine to Obama. The Romney-Allen combination has to show a last ditch effort by Romney to scrounge up voters at the margin. It does little for Allen and indeed may help Democratic down ballot voters identify their man. These elections are impossible to call. That means that the Democratic GOTV effort is the essential piece. Unfortunately, the way this works, few of the John E. Gordons of Virginia will be on our rolls. If you know any, drive them to the polls.