VA GOP Bill #1 for 2013? Ban Abortion, Embryonic Stem Cell Research, Certain Contraceptive Methods

Marshall Should be the #1 House Target (0.00 / 0)

Is anyone talking about mounting a serious challenge against Marshall next year?
His district was made substantially less Republican after redistricting.
We don't have a shot at a majority but knocking off Marshall would be a great victory!

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by: churchlanddem @ Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 22:36:53 PM UTC

Not sure, but we really do need to beat this guy (0.00 / 0)

...one of these years.  

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by: lowkell @ Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 23:38:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Important, But Top? (0.00 / 0)

This is a common problem I see popping up among more progressive activists, both in Virginia and nationally. A desire to prioritize going after the most hated Republicans at the cost of ignoring other seats. Marshall's seat is certainly one we have to continue to contest in the decade ahead, but I see no reason to prioritize it over other seas.

Top Targets in 2013:

- Yost (12th)
- Rust (86th, Damn I wish he'd just retire)
- Watson (93rd)
- Dudenhefer (2nd)
- Comstock (34th)
- LeMunyon (67th)
- Ramadan (87th)
- Greason (3rd)
- Tata, Open (85th, a reach, but better to contest as an open seat in a Gubernatorial than any other time)

This assumes a McAuliffe-Chopra-Herring ticket, but would need to be updated after seeing the final results this November. The assumption is that a top targets list of more than 10 races is not manageable in terms of resources and there should be room for on the radar lists to be picked up depending on other shifts/changes in the next few months.

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by: FreeDem @ Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 14:07:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed, there are many more vulnerable Republicans (0.00 / 0)

in "Obama districts" that we should try to knock off as our first priority, before we go after buffoons in "red" districts like Sideshow Bob.

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by: lowkell @ Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 14:19:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Marshall represents an "Obama" district (0.00 / 0)

Obama won Marshall's district in its new configuration by 11 points!
But we all know (I think) districts behave differently in off-year elections.
I've really looked over the numbers and there isn't much low-hanging fruit.

I almost get the impression some Dems want to keep him around because he's a sideshow and makes Republicans look bad.

The fact is he is a very influential lawmaker who is getting legislation through that is very harmful to some in this state who aren't "like him".

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by: churchlanddem @ Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 02:40:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting, I didn't realize that Marshall's new (0.00 / 0)

district was +11 Obama. Do you have a list of all the districts and their new performance indices?  Thanks.

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by: lowkell @ Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 10:04:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

District Lean (0.00 / 0)

I would argue that two college communities where we're going to struggle with lower turnout in off-year elections are better to focus on during the 2013 election because that's going to be the higher turnout relative to 2015, AND the incumbent Republicans are still only in their first term and haven't set down deep roots ... yet.

The 2nd is even more Obama-leaning than Marshall's district, Obama +15. And the dropoff in 2009 wasn't "as bad" as it was elsewhere.

The 34th, 67th, 87th and 3rd aren't just random district I've pulled out of my hat, they are Democratic-leaning districts with high levels of Asian-Americans, over 15%. And while I cannot break that down into Indian-American vs. other groups, I do know that western Fairfax/eastern Loudoun is where most Indian-Americans in the Washington DC metropolitan area are concentrated. Having Chopra on the ticket will impact them and help with base turnout, more so than other Northern Virginia Districts.

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by: FreeDem @ Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 11:38:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Diary? (0.00 / 0)

Hey, you seem to have some strong thoughts based on your looking over the numbers, and I do as well. This diary isn't exactly on topic for such a discussion, and is being pushed down the page anyway. Any interest in starting a new diary to go over some early thoughts?

- Where you see things now.
- What you're watching for this fall's election.
- Your thoughts on how redistricting reshuffled things.

Etc.?

And we can generate a discussion, see if it attracts other folks. I'm sure Lowell at least would be happy to see such discussion.

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by: FreeDem @ Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 14:29:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure (4.00 / 1)

I can talk about this stuff all day...I think it's really interesting (and important!)
Also,  I won the VPAP contest last year for picking the races for what that's worth.
I feel like I have a pretty good sense of these things and would just like to help.

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by: churchlanddem @ Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 23:02:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, Marshall should be #1 (0.00 / 0)

Almost all of the seats you cited were made substantially more Republican after the last round of redistricting. Marshall's seat was made more Democratic.
Frankly, Tom Rust is not the problem in Richmond. It is right wing idealogues like Marshall who are actually getting legislation through that chamber.

Unfortunately a lot of the folks you mentioned will be more difficult targets as the incumbency factor comes into play (although I think Yost could be vulnerable with a good Democrat from Blacksburg)

Bottom line is if it comes down to prioritizing I would rather target Marshall than Rust any day. Besides, I haven't seen the kind of resources targeted at Marshall that I have towards Rust (and we have repeatedly seen how that worked out).
Why not go for it next time around?

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by: churchlanddem @ Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 02:32:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seats (0.00 / 0)

We need to pick up seats, period. That's the way I look at it. I'm not as influenced by the behavior of the individual legislator, but I respect that you are.

You are right to worry about the incumbency factor, as historically Virginia Democrats have struggled to knock off incumbents, especially in the House. If that continues, we might as well just give up now.

All of the seats I listed are on average as Democratic as Marshall's seat, or close. Comstock's seat, where Obama actually performed under expectations in 2008, is one I am worried about slipping away from Democrats in the next few cycles, but that's why I'm open to looking at this fall's numbers too.

Marshall's seat is heavily Hispanic and had a very significant drop in performance in 2009, far worse than the statewide average. My only guess is that in the lower turnout election the Democratic voters that came out for Obama in record numbers didn't make it out. I don't know how to translate "Deeds Country" into Spanish. I think this will continue to be a problem in our statewide elections, while other districts stuck to their average performance in 2009 and have other underlying factors (See my comment above on Indian-Americans) that should give them consideration.

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by: FreeDem @ Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 11:50:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It was HB1 last year, too. (0.00 / 0)

Marshall makes sure to time his submissions just right to get the symbolic first billing for his odious bills. Fortunately I doubt it'll go anywhere, just like it didn't last year.

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by: loudoun independent @ Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 23:40:35 PM UTC

It passed the House last year (0.00 / 0)

easily, and almost passed the Senate. I wouldn't exactly say that didn't go anywhere...

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by: lowkell @ Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 00:19:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]