New PPP Virginia Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 42%; McDonnell's Approval at 41%

Obama in Roanoke (0.00 / 0)

Friday !!

http://www.roanoke.com/news/br...

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by: gg2landy @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 18:45:12 PM UTC

Tickets (0.00 / 0)

Tickets for the event will be available tomorrow at 5:30 at the IBEW office on Peter's Creek Road, one ticket per person, first come first serve.  

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by: Elaine in Roanoke @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 19:28:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Old Virginny is Still Dead (0.00 / 0)

Wow.

Nate Cohn at the New Republic notes that there were three swing states in 2008 where Obama's coalition was significantly more minority/non-white than the national coalition: New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. (http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/103969/obama%E2%80%99s-problem-white-non-college-educated-voters-getting-worse)

Obama's victory in Virginia did not depend heavily on the white working class, or non-college educated whites, which means any decline in Democratic performance in places like Southwest Virginia will be less noticeable than in the Midwest or other parts of the Rust Belt. Obama was already pretty close to rock bottom in the 9th and elsewhere.

Looking at PPP's 73% white sample for Virginia, that's actually up from the 70% white from the 2008 exit poll of Virginia.

In that election Obama won 39% of the white vote in Virginia. In PPP's poll he's getting 41%, which should be enough to win. This is especially true if the voting population this fall is as non-white, or more, than PPP's sample.

I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Obama's votes this fall come from non-white voters.

Now does the state party reflect this new Democratic coalition?

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by: FreeDem @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 20:45:40 PM UTC

The State Party NOT = this coalition (4.00 / 1)

If you define the state party literally to mean the ethnic and racial breakdown of the members of the DPVA Central Committee, that breakdown is a far, far cry from the new Virginia Democratic coalition described in this PPP poll. There are a number of reasons for this, but to me the biggest single reason is that, under the current version of the DPVA Party Plan, the membership on the DPVA Central Committee is almost entirely determined by giving each of our 11 Congressional Districts the exact same number of members on the Central Committee--irrespective of the Democratic performance in state-wide elections for, say, President or Governor, of the voters in each Congressional District.

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by: Peter Rousselot @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 23:07:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Excellent Observation (0.00 / 0)

Some regions of the state contribute far, far more to our coalition and should be recognized for their key role. Other regions have only a skeleton of a Democratic presence outside of some activists. Weighing them equally is like the rotten boroughs in the old Parliament.

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by: FreeDem @ Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 11:41:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"who are those 38%" (0.00 / 0)

The rich and super rich.  Also the low information voters who belive the propaganda from nut radio and fox news.  Also, for cantor, it only matters what his approval rating is in the district.

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by: normanva @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 22:09:28 PM UTC

Sounds too good to be true (4.00 / 1)

I would be cautious reading too much into one poll -- and I am very concerned about progressives getting overconfident.

Repubs are determined to win this election at all levels with a toxic brew of gobs of corporate money, voter suppression and outright lies and deceit.  And don't put it past them -- they've done it before, and with candidates not much more appealing than Romney. (Remember a dude named Nixon?)

I hope everything this poll found is true, but hope is an inspiration, not a strategy.  

Crush "Crimes Against Nature" Cuccinelli! Now on Twitter.

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by: kindler @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 22:49:47 PM UTC

I've seen exactly zero sign of "progressives getting overconfident" (0.00 / 0)

If anything, I've seen the opposite.  As for this being "one poll,"  click here for all the recent polling on Virginia. Note that the last PPP #s back in April had Obama +8 in Virginia, same as this poll. Recent polls by ODU/Virginian Pilot and Quinnipiac also had Obama +8, while Marist had Obama +7 and Purple Strategies had Obama +5. Other than that, there was Republican Rasmussen, which I generally refuse to cite because it's total crap, which had Obama and Romney tied in Virginia (whatever!), and something I've never heard of, called "We Ask America," which had a total outlier (Romney +5). So, toss out "We Ask America" and probably Republican Rasmussen, and you get Obama up around 5-6 points in Virginia.  Definitely NOT any cause to get overconfident, more like cause to work our butts off through Election Day, especially given how much money the Koch brothers, Karl Rove et al. are going to put in here lying about Obama, Kaine, etc.

Follow me on Twitter. Follow Blue Virginia on Facebook and Twitter.

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by: lowkell @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 23:16:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More good polling news from (0.00 / 0)

Reuters  

Follow me on Twitter. Follow Blue Virginia on Facebook and Twitter.

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by: lowkell @ Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 23:26:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nate Silver... (0.00 / 0)

...shares my caution.

Crush "Crimes Against Nature" Cuccinelli! Now on Twitter.

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by: kindler @ Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 01:14:26 AM UTC