Iowa GOP Caucus: Everybody Loses

Romney won AND lost (0.00 / 0)

He de facto won the nomination, as nobody who'll be left after last night can challenge him. But at the same time, he showed himself to be a very weak nominee, with minimal enthusiasm among the Republican base, and even hostility from Ron Paul supporters. Something tells me the mood is pretty good in Chicago Obama HQ right now.

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by: lowkell @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 15:14:45 PM UTC

Not all bad for Romney or Paul (0.00 / 0)

More people than ever before turned out for the caucuses, and while Romney didn't glean as large a percentage as in 2008, there were also 7 candidates on the ballot.  And in 2008, when over 90% of the caucus-goers were self-identified Republicans, this time close to 25% labeled themselves independents.

I'd venture to say that Santorum is the conservative, "family values" (definitely not MY family) flavor of the moment.  They've been through Perry, Cain and Gingrich and found them all lacking, the same will happen to Santorum.

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by: Clemgo3165 @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 16:33:53 PM UTC

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About 122,000 turned out, barely up from 118,000 in 2008 (4.00 / 1)

As First Read writes:

... make no mistake: It was a disappointing number, especially given what Republicans were hoping for to show the enthusiasm to defeat President Obama in the fall. Getting 140,000 or 150,000 would have shown real enthusiasm. Republicans didn't get that last night. It may have been more a reflection on the candidate field than on the prospect of defeating the president.

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by: lowkell @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 16:45:32 PM UTC

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Independents (4.00 / 1)

I assume many of those 25% "Independents" are Ron Paul supporters and that once Paul is not the nominee, they won't likely vote for the Republican nominee or necessarily vote at all.

Additionally, I'm excited for the Gingrich-Romney battle. Did you watch Gingrich's speech last night?  He's angry, and I'm pretty sure he doesn't care if he takes down the likely Republican nominee with him.  

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by: Jamie @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 16:56:49 PM UTC

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Self identification (0.00 / 0)

We also know that the Republican party identification has dropped significantly for the label of "independent."  A more accurate way of self-identifying would have been to ask caucus voters this year if they had voted in a caucus four years ago, and for which side.

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by: GretchenLaskas @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 16:57:01 PM UTC

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I wonder (0.00 / 0)

If that holds true for people going to the Republican caucuses?

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by: Clemgo3165 @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 22:31:01 PM UTC

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Voters (0.00 / 0)

What concerns me is the voters. During all this Iowa charade that was shone on TV I never heard a single intelligent comment from a potential voter. Channel 9  had a reporter who supposedly found a couple of democrats against Obama and for Romney. What they said didn't make any sense either.  

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by: Jim B @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 16:41:08 PM UTC

What worries me is the likelihood that Romney will pick McD. as his VP... (0.00 / 0)

As bizarre as it seems to rational GOP and I-leaning, McD. is very popular in Virginia and Romney, being the astute politician he is, may very well choose McD. as his VP running mate, which would make Obama's quest for the Virginia electoral college votes much more difficult. The only Dem/Obama positive I see from this is that it might cause Virginia Dem. (and BV) activists enough pause to consider the loss of Va. to work very, very hard to help the Obama campaign here.

The HUGE problem that we have right now with the Obama campaign, though, is their abject refusal to open campaign offices in PWC where I live or in Montgomery County (VA) where my brother lives RIGHT NOW. Even the Montgomery County Dem. committe chair has been unable to get any response from the Obama campaign as to when they will open a campaign office in Blacksburg, where there are hundreds of Va. Tech students and local Dems. who want to start recruiting volunteers and contacting voters NOW, but there is no office for them to work out of for phone banking or canvassing operations, so they are starting to lose a lotof the volunteers who are ready to begin work RIGHT NOW.

The Obama campaign actually closed all their OFA offices, and in Blacksburg they fired the young man who was really doing a good job. And the Obama campaign his made no decision on either where/when they will hire office managers or lease campaign  office space.

In my county (PWC), we still don't have any idea where or when the Obama campaign office will open (in 2008 they used our PWCDC HQ office temporarily until they leased a better space).

It is starting to look like the Obama campaign won't make any more campaign office leasing or staffing decisions until sometime after the 18 Feb. JJ Dinner annual fund-raising event (strictly to fund DPVA operations, completely unrelated to the Obama campaign).

My brother and I, as well as the Montgomery County Dem. Committee chair, have pleaded with the Obama campaign state "leadership" to convince them to open and staff an office in Blacksburg, or at least assure them that they would be reimburse the county committee if they arranged for a short term lease of a temp. office space; but so far, no response. The situation is the same in my home county, PWC - no info. yet to my PWCDC chair as to when/where the PWC Obama campaign will open, or if they have even hired staffers or contacting anyone to discuss office leasing.

With a cash balance in the hundreds of millions of dollars, it makes NO sense that the Obama campaign in Virginia can't make a simple decision about swing counties like PWC and heavy-duty college student activists in Blacksburg now that all the students are back to school after the holidays.

If the Obama campaign thinks it's o.k. to wait until late Feb. or early March to open any more staffed campaign offices in Virginia, they run the risk of being "too little, too late". Hoarding money and not getting a head start on a possible Romney-McDonnell ticket is a very bad, defeatist, strategy in my mind.

I can't blame the DPVA for the Obama campaign indecision. The DPVA has no better sucess than the Dem. county committee chairs in getting any info. on when decisions will be made and staff hired.

If any of you BV contributors out there have any influence over the Virginia Obama campaign decision makers, please tellthem to at least make decisions for Montgomery County and PWC  so our lined-up volunteers have an offcie towork out of and staff to run the offices BEFORE the 17-18 Feb.DPVA quarterly meetings and the 18 Feb. JJ Dinner/fund-raiser in Richmond. We can't afford to lose an entire month.

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by: Tom @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 17:50:18 PM UTC

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Volunteers? (4.00 / 1)

In the Roanoke Valley, there is a large, committed cadre of volunteers with OFA. Already, there have been voter registration drives, phone banks, house meetings, etc. Perhaps PWC and Montgomery County need to fire up some volunteers beforehand to begin pressuring OFA to extend paid staff. For my way of thinking, the volunteer effort always precedes paid staff. Why is it that OFA paid staff have to be the ones to recruit volunteers? Why not the county committees?

Also, remember that the Kaine campaign will be an integral part of the election campaign. Check with those folks. They have far more influence with the Obama campaign than you folks. (I also would check with Don mark if I were you.)

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by: Elaine in Roanoke @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 18:39:18 PM UTC

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Great comment. (0.00 / 0)

Agree on all counts!

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by: lowkell @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 18:51:17 PM UTC

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And with cell phones (0.00 / 0)

You don't really need an office to get started - all you need is a call sheet and you're set to go.

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by: Clemgo3165 @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 19:57:56 PM UTC

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Exactly! (4.00 / 1)

Plus, every local committee has access to VAN to identify voters and generate call sheets.

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by: Elaine in Roanoke @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 20:47:59 PM UTC

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I just don't see McD as a Romney VP pick (4.00 / 1)

I imagine that if Romney winds up as the nominee, he will quickly need to do two inconsistent things simultaneously -- shore up his right wing base and appeal to more moderate independents. He may seek to do this by announcing his VP pick quickly after (if) he sews up the nomination.

McD doesn't do that for him. Christie does. Rubio does.

If the GOP nominee thinks he needs to have McD on the ticket to win Virginia, that is a bad sign (for the GOP).

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by: aznew @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 20:57:02 PM UTC

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Video: Crazy extremist Michele Bachmann backs out (0.00 / 0)

Good riddance, now please GO THE @#$@#$ AWAY!!!

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by: lowkell @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 17:36:10 PM UTC

Video: Jon Huntsman Goes After Ron Paul for Tweet (0.00 / 0)

How is it that things constantly are being written under Ron Paul's own name, that he then later claims he had no knowledge of? Let's assume he's telling the truth and did NOT have knowledge of these writings: what does that say about his grip on his staff, his campaign, and ultimately the White House if he ever got to be president?  

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by: lowkell @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 17:40:31 PM UTC

Paul is loony (0.00 / 0)

but when he does stuff like this -- i.e., pointing out in his befuddled manner  that this interviewer is wasting time asking about an issue of zero import -- he makes me laugh.

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by: aznew @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 20:46:31 PM UTC

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