PPP: 2012 Starting to Look Better and Better for Democrats

by: lowkell

Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 13:45:28 PM EDT

PPP's newest national poll finds that after a little more than 3 months in charge House Republicans have fallen so far out of favor with the American public that it's entirely possible Democrats could take control of the House back next year.

43% of voters think that House Republicans are doing a worse job now than the Democrats did, compared to only 36% who think the GOP has brought an improvement. 19% think things are about the same. 62% of voters thinking that the Republicans have either made things worse or brought no improvement to an already unpopular Congress does not bode particularly well for the party.

I'd also add that in 2012, House Democrats will be playing on much friendlier turf, and also in a much more favorable political environment, than in 2010. For starters, many of the seats Republicans picked up in 2010 are in districts carried by President Obama in 2008 (see Democracy Corps for more on that subject). Those seats are all highly vulnerable in 2012. Second, after two years of Teapublican threats to shut down the government if they don't get 100% of their demand; to allow a disastrous default by the United States on its debt, again if they don't get their way; and to push its extreme social, anti-labor, anti-environmental, and pro-corporate agenda; it's highly likely that Democrats will be fired up and independents sick of the extremism. Finally, with the "max turnout" of a presidential year, including among many Democratic "base" voters who stayed home last November, and with the economy continuing to recover, there is basically zero chance that Republicans will recreate the unique "enthusiasm gap" they enjoyed in their 2010 "wave" election year. Sure, the Donald Trumps of the world will continue to play on racist charges that Barack Obama wasn't born in the United States, despite absolutely conclusive evidence to the contrary, but that's only likely to fire up a small percentage of the far-far-far-right wingers, while turning off just about everyone else.

Obviously, things could change greatly between now and November 2012. But for now, it's looking a lot better to be a Democrat than a Republican running in 2012.