Kaine-Allen Senate "Poll" FAIL

Sample size (0.00 / 0)

you say:

the poll had a tiny sample size of just 360 people

Sounds like the "pollster" simply discussed it with his own extended family :)  

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by: libra @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 02:16:15 AM UTC

No cell phones (0.00 / 0)

The poll did not seem to include cell phones, so it will skew away from minorities and younger respondents. It appears to underrepresent Northern Virginia. Interestingly, even with a sample that is almost certainly biased towards more conservative folks, the support for renewable energy sources is very strong, opposition to domestic drilling for oil is close to 50%, support for the environment is pretty strong, support for the Tea Party is only about 50-50. The numbers on Kaine and Allen do not appear to be representative of the state as a whole.

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by: mechenvy @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 02:51:31 AM UTC

And yet all the righty blogs are trumpeting it (0.00 / 0)

Makes you wonder if maybe this was an inside fix.  What's the deal with Roanoke College?  Is it a real school or a right wing diploma mill?

The Richmonder

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by: The Richmonder @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 05:08:31 AM UTC

It's a (0.00 / 0)

real college. A lot of kids from my area (Lexington/Rockbridge county) go there. It's not all that great a school but, when money is tight, it's better than nothing. It's definitely not like Fallwell's Liberty U.

As for the frighty blogs trumpeting... Let them enjoy what they can, while they can. With luck, they'll get so complacent they'll not feel it's necessary to fight :)

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by: libra @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 05:24:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Most university polls are garbage (0.00 / 0)

They tend to be churned out by PoliSci grad students and they'll do maybe one or two polls a year. The only university whose polling I give any serious merit to is Quinnipiac.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 12:10:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even Qunnipiac (0.00 / 0)

has been slipping, as far as I can determine. I am close to ignoring their polls at this point, as they're starting to look more like Rasmussen in their strong anti-Democratic slant. But yeah, university polls are generally complete crap. as is this Roanoke College "poll."

Follow me on Twitter.

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by: lowkell @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 12:14:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Quinnipiac has full-time polling staff, but still... (0.00 / 0)

...they slipped some in a few races last year.

At one point last fall in CT-Sen they showed Blumenthal slipping and down to a razor-thin lead over McMahon, and it looked credible because PPP and Rasmussen (yes I know and I agree but at least 2 others corroborated on this one) both said the same thing at that time.  But Dems shot back with released private polls that showed Blumenthal still up double-digits.

PPP, for their part, blew it once or twice in CO-Gov, showing Hickenlooper clinging to a narrow lead over a surging Tancredo.  Again, Dem internals there had Hickenlooper up double-digits.

There was something about public polling last year that at times in various races showed Republicans doing better than in reality.  Rasmussen of course was total garbage for the most part because they're not a legitimate outfit.  But other more reputable outfits also had some troubles.

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by: DCCyclone @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 01:49:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The wingnuts are stupid and bizarre in their perceptions of Kaine...... (0.00 / 0)

It's one thing that they simply don't like him, for ideological reasons.  I get that, so whatever.

But they really seem to believe he's politically weak.  And when you try to dig for why they think that, it's based on his DNC Chairmanship.

These people are truly stupid.  No one in Virginia cares or can be made to care that Kaine was DNC Chair.  Voters will evaluate him on whether they liked the job he did as Governor and L.G., whether they like him personally, and whether his qualities fit what they want going forward in the U.S. Senate.  Nowhere will his DNC Chairmanship or anything that happened in that period affect their perception of him.

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by: DCCyclone @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 01:53:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kaine's image is a good one (0.00 / 0)

I agree. Kaine's image around Richmond is strong, with memories of his time as mayor, his decency and approachableness and more. That's why it's irritating whenever Jeff Shapiro mentions Kaine's Senate race and brings up his pardon record and proposals to raise taxes while governor. Shapiro reflexively anticipates what he supposes (or knows) will be GOP talking points. But in fact most Virginians I know judge him on other grounds, especially his character and family. Whatever Obama's fortunes in 2012, it would be surprising if he doesn't defeat Allen (or any GOP) by at least 5 points.  

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by: richmonder @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 01:18:09 AM UTC