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PPP: Allen 47%-Kaine 47%; Obama in "very solid position" in VA for 2012

by: lowkell

Tue Mar 01, 2011 at 12:38:37 PM EST


Public Policy Polling is out with a brand new poll of Virginia, and it's got some fascinating information.

*"Tim Kaine and George Allen tie at 47% in our first poll since Jim Webb announced his retirement."
*"Kaine is slightly more popular than Allen, sporting a 46/38 favorability spread to Allen's 39/40."
*"Allen leads the other two Democrats we tested against him, a pair of Congressmen defeated in last year's election. It's 48-41 over Tom Perriello and 47-42 over Rick Boucher."
*"The main reason that Perriello and Boucher do worse than Kaine is that there are three times as many undecided Democrats as Republicans with them in the picture..."
*"Allen's number is pretty much unchanged regardless of the Democrat pitted against him- 47% against Kaine and Boucher, 48% against Perriello."
*"Virginia Presidential numbers we'll release tomorrow...show Barack Obama in a very solid position to win the state again next year."

My takeaways are that Tim Kaine is certainly not a slam-dunk to beat George Allen in 2012, but he's certainly not in bad shape either. Also, Kaine would not necessarily be a much (if at all) stronger Democratic candidate than Tom Perriello or Rick Boucher in 2012, given that Allen's numbers are basically the same no matter who the Democratic nominee is. In fact, the main difference right now is in name ID (Kaine's is far higher statewide than Perriello's or Boucher's or Bobby Scott's or...). In the final analysis, the 2012 race will feature Barack Obama at the top of the ballot, and I find it difficult to believe that if Obama's carrying Virginia, that the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee running with him won't be able to beat a guy who still carries huge baggage from his 2006 run, not to mention his 6 years doing nothing in the Senate except voting 97% with George W. Bush.

So, when's Tim Kaine going to let us know whether he's running or not? Reportedly, he's on vacation this week and will make his decision, then probably let everyone know next week. Stay tuned...

lowkell :: PPP: Allen 47%-Kaine 47%; Obama in "very solid position" in VA for 2012
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From PPP's analysis: (0.00 / 0)
The main reason that Perriello and Boucher do worse than Kaine is that there are three times as many undecided Democrats as Republicans with them in the picture, whereas with the former Governor the percentage of undecided voters by party is equal. That's probably just a function of name recognition- 57% of voters in the state don't know enough about Perriello to have formed an opinion about him and the same is true for 60% of voters when it comes to Boucher. Perriello and Boucher might start lower than Kaine, but their ceilings aren't necessarily any lower than Kaine's.

That says it all right there.


Right, it's 100% name ID (0.00 / 0)
Other than that, it looks like Allen 2-3 point under 50% regardless of who the Democratic candidate is. That's assuming, of course, that Allen's even the nominee, which is not a lock or anything...

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[ Parent ]
The fact that Allen gets 47-48% against all of them says it all (0.00 / 0)
Perriello and Boucher are both purely behind because of name rec. If you look at Kaine and Allen's favorability ratings, both of them are close to evenly split. I have had a hunch since Webb retired that if Obama wins Virginia in 2012 any Democrat will win the senate race, and if Obama loses Virginia the Democrat will lose the senate race, unless both contests are decided by a few thousand votes. This poll seems to be in line with that view.

Felix (1.00 / 1)
George Allen is a douchebag.

Allen will fall apart when the cameras are turned on (0.00 / 0)
"Macaca" was just the biggest of his gaffes, but Allen had several others.  The man is a buffoon and he'll self-destruct all over again.  I just wonder whether it will be in the primary or in the general.

The Richmonder

Tim wont run (0.00 / 0)
I am one who hopes Tim runs, but, I dont think he will.  If he does not I think we need to all take a deep breath and think becasue I am not sure that Tom is the answer

Who do you think would be a stronger candidate than Tom ? (0.00 / 0)
I think Connolly would be a somewhat stronger statewide candidate, but I don't think Gerry is interested. I'd like to see state Senator Donald McEachin run and I think he'd be a strong candidate, but I don't really think Donald is interested. McAuliffe has already indicated that he's not interested, so that pretty much depletes the bench of viable candidates. Do you have someone other than Perriello on mind if Kaine announces by next week that he won't run ?

                         T.C.


[ Parent ]
I think Tom would be the strongest candidate. (0.00 / 0)
Period.

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[ Parent ]
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