New Poll has Kaine up by Six, Perriello Up One vs. Allen

Allen's not a juggernaut... (0.00 / 0)

Of course, I don't follow this for a living, but with all the talk on NLS and the other blogs I don't understand the thought that with Webb's absence Allen is the likely winner.  It's going to be an presidential election year in a state Obama carried in '08, and Perriello even outperformed Obama in his district.

Besides, is anyone scared by Allen as a candidate?  Of course, he lost because of the "macaca" incident, but a better candidate (or a better senator, for that matter) would have survived that gaffe.  A lot of his problems came from Allen's post-gaffe flailing and his quick descent into negative campaigning to try to get his mojo back.  It's not like he could run on his record. I always thought the national Republican party should have written Webb a thank-you note for revealing Allen's glass jaw before he got the Presidential nomination.  And this is all without the challenge Allen's going to get from the right now.

Whether it's Kaine or Perriello, it still seems like it's the Dems' race to lose.  Of course, if the nominee is someone like Harris Miller all bets are off. ;)

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by: nevsky42 @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:14:26 PM UTC

I'm not terribly worried by "Felix Macacawitz" (0.00 / 0)

And yes, I use that nickname on purpose, to highlight that George Allen carries ALL the baggage from his 2006 run, has come to terms with none of the racist @#$@ he's said and done, etc.  

Follow me on Twitter.

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by: lowkell @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:16:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would just point out (0.00 / 0)

that Warner was on the ballot in 2008. He won't be in 2012.

As I recall, the thinking was that Warner had the bigger coattails in Virginia.

I'm also wary of these arguments that the Obama magic from 2008 can be recaptured in 2012. I don't think it can. In 2008, Obama represented a limitless future. In 2012, he is just another typical politician trying to save his job.

On the other side of the ledger, I do have the sense that, in the absence of some new event or circumstance, such as a slowdown in the economy, the Tea Party thing has peaked, and the reaction to their success in 2010 will hurt them in the near future. As the TP electeds try to turn their rhetoric into actual governing policy, I think it is inevitable that the more moderate Independents will come to understand just how extreme some elements of this "movement" are.

This is definitely an opportunity for Democrats and Progressives to reclaim the political middle, where these elections are typically won and lost.

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by: aznew @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:47:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well (0.00 / 0)

A better candidate or a better senator wouldn't have made that gaffe in the first place. Allen sold himself as a tobacco-chewing, drugstore cowboy, football toting, good ole boy who wore his disgusting prejudices on his sleeve. That image won't work anymore. I pray that he's the GOP nominee in 2012.  

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by: Elaine in Roanoke @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:57:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perriello just gets better!! (4.00 / 1)

Someone to help get young votes back to the polls-I know he can make it happen.

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by: Va Breeze @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 15:46:46 PM UTC

If you agree ... (4.00 / 2)

... join the Draft Perriello campaign

Read more at TheGreenMiles.com and follow me on Twitter

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by: TheGreenMiles @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 16:30:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Already did :) (4.00 / 1)

There have been few candidates  over the years that I would be willing to work as hard for as Perriello and I worked many, many hours in 2010.

I had "district envy" as I live outside of his congressional district, so I followed his career and votes and the more I learned-the more I liked.

My budget has been really tight the last few years but I gave Tom $$'s last year.

I don't dislike Kaine but I find it very hard to muster enthusiasm for him.

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by: Va Breeze @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:33:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Will do. (0.00 / 0)

I will be moving to Connecticut later this year, but will lend my support to bring back this excellent public servant.

And if not Virginia, would he consider coming back to Connecticut?

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by: mydailydrunk @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 20:36:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Either Kaine or Perriello can win (2.00 / 2)

I really do think that Tim Kaine or Tom Perriello can win. My preference is for Tim Kaine right now. Virginia will be a very hotly contested state in 2012 (probably only FL and OH will be more contested) so whoever runs is going to benefit from the money to drag voters out to the polls not being an issue. Others have said that Warner won't be on the ballot in 2012 but was that race even on the radar in 2008? I certainly remember Obama/McCain ads but little Warner/Gilmore ads. I like Obama's chances in Virginia right now especially with the GOP's flawed field. The demographics of the state are changing and it is not good for the GOP. Liberal Northern Virginia is growing fast and conservative southside Virginia is stagnant and even losing people. Obama will be able to get the African-America vote out in full force, no doubt about that. You combine this with a toxic Republican candidate in George Allen and whoever the Dem is assuming they are not scandal ridden they start with a floor of at least 45%. Allen is too polarizing to win in a blowout in a Presidential year. Why the VA GOP wants him to run again is beyond me. I am glad that they are stupid in that regard. It isn't like they have no bench in the state (Bolling and Whittman are better candidates) as Allen is extremely toxic and polarizing. Bob "Birther" Goodlatte is a huge joke. Statewide he would be annihilated.

Tim Kaine has won 2 statewide elections and he can raise money. I think he'd beat George Allen and people could care less about the DNC chairmanship. Unless if you royally screw up or say something nutty most voters could care less. He is Governor Kaine not Chairman Kaine to the people of Virginia. He was non-controversial at the DNC and has a high name ID. He has a base outside of Northern Virginia but is liked by Northern Virginia residents.

I think that Tom Perriello is best served deferring to Kaine on the Senate and if VA-05 gets a more favorable demographic in redistricting then he should challenge the empty suit know as Robert Hurt. Otherwise a statewide run in 2013 with the potential for a Mr. Toxic himself as the Republican nominee is his for the taking. I don't see him having a hard time raising money at all and he would instantly get a lot of 3rd party money from labor and environment groups dumped on his behalf. He can build a name ID in NoVa and would fit in very well. He is only 36 and in 2013 he would be 39 so his time is not up.

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:59:07 PM UTC

Lady Democrats (0.00 / 0)

Don't Virginia Democrats have any possible lady candidates? I notice that your "Who's Your Choice..." poll has none.

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by: EUAS @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 17:59:11 PM UTC

None at this point (0.00 / 0)

I can't think of any that are in the same league as Perriello and Kaine.  Jody Wagner's name has been mentioned and she's probably the best in a weak field of potential women candidates.  

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by: NotJohnSMosby @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:08:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A special kind of stupid (4.00 / 1)

Allen is a stupid person, a really stupid person.  Really stupid people do not do well in politics.

A merely stupid person can do well in politics, but only if he takes direction well.  Taking direction is what really stupid people can't do, because they imagine that they are clever enough to do without it.

In fact, a smart person in politics needs to take direction as well, perhaps even more so than the stupid politician, whose stupidity may tend to dumbness, a poverty of speech that can be protective.  The reason that politicians tend to speak in bland and inoffensive, if not very informative, generalities, is that even smart and well-calculated pronouncements are not likely to be nuanced enough to not offend some voter or another without an offsetting gain of someone else's vote.  So politicians learn to speak mush outside of a few very well thought out talking points.  These talking points may well, often do, offend some set of voters or another, but always with the well-calculated gain of more votes than are lost.

Which brings us to Allen and that macaca moment.  Yes, the use of the word was a gaffe, and even gifted politicians make the occasional gaffe.  What made this gaffe fatal for Allen was the context, and his behavior as captured on a video that was shown over and over in 2006, and will get airplay again if the Rs are foolish enough to let him be their candidate in 2012.

The sad truth is that there defnitely are votes to be gained from siding with the idea that some of us are "real" Virginians, while those people over there are not.  But you can't just come right out and express that idea in the context that race is what makes "them" non-real Virginians.  I think that what torpedoed Allen was the connection he makes in that video between this talking point about "real" Virginians, which is the preferred current dog-whistle that his side uses to exploit racism, and the actual overt racism of using a word like "macaca".  Even in the southwest of the Commonwealth, you insult rather than flatter your audience if you make it clear that you think they will side with racist exclusionism.

Allen manages a sort of triple backflip of stupid in that video.  I invite everyone who imagines that he would be the R's best candidate to take the seat to review the thing.  First, he is confident enough of his own ability to think on his feet that he makes a point of interrupting his prepared remarks to call attention to the D tracker who has been videotaping him in publiuc appearances around the state.  He refers to this young man, obviously of south Asian descent, by a word that most would interpret as meaning some kind of monkey.  He senses that his audience didn't catch the reference, so he helps them by explaining that Sidarth isn't a "real" Virginian, he's from a part of the state where there are a whole lot of non-real Virginians.  The audience doesn't react well, so he just digs deeper and deeper, convinced that the problem isn't his evident racist stupidity, but that he just hasn't turned up the dazzle of his wit high enough, so he needs to just push it one more level.

No candidate is perfect.  Allen certainly isn't going to be running against anyone perfect on the D side if he's their candidate.  I'm sure the D candidate will make mistakes, including the occasional gaffe.  Allen doesn;t have to be perfect.

But Allen is in a class by himself.  We're all stupid, but most of us are teachable.  You're not teachable if you imagine that you're as smart and slick as the Allen we see in the macaca video.  

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by: Glen Tomkins @ Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 18:33:01 PM UTC