Obama coming to Charlottesville for Perriello

Numbers game (0.00 / 0)

I apologize for the double post but my other post clearly belongs here in this thread.....

I think it's a wise move by Perriello even though Obama's approval is reasonably underwater here and Perriello has been clearly trailing in the polls. The most reasonable and reliable recent poll (I discount the Survey USA polls and any internal polls) was done last week by Roanoke College and said Hurt 46 - Perriello 40. The interesting part about this poll is that only 14.6% of the voters were African-American. VA-05 is nearly 25% African-American so there is no doubt that Perriello has the chance to grow here. He likely won't get to 25% but an interesting calculation is if he can get 20% AA turnout @ 90% of their vote and 40% of the white vote he would be tied. I am not sure how the VA-05 white vote is as compared with statewide. Anyone have any thoughts? C'ville would help but likely is offset with down state. Obviously the VA-05 white vote is not as liberal as the NoVa white vote. For comparison sake in 2006 Webb had 42% of the white vote statewide. 2006 is the better comparison then 2008 as 2006 Webb narrowly won so I am trying to look at what a "tie game" looks like.

Clearly upping the African-American vote is his path to victory and Obama can definitely help with this. He's also betting that the anti-Obama vote is just about maxed out and he's not going to make any in-roads here. I have to agree here. Whether this will be enough remains to be seen but if he loses a narrow race it won't be because Obama came to stump for him.

Old poll as of 10/18 is here:
http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Ev...

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 20:33:52 PM UTC

get a grip...and y'all are supposed to be Progressives? (0.00 / 0)

He is the President of the United States.  He appeals to more than just African Americans.  He can energize more than African Americans. He excites the base which is more than African Americans. If I have to make that argument about this President on this blog, we have further to go on the subject of race than I had feared.

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by: vaambition @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 20:54:32 PM UTC

I didn't think the comment (4.00 / 1)

was suggesting that Pres. Obama would fire up only African American voters. I thought it was just looking at some numbers from the district and how the president's visit might affect that particular voting block, and how that would change the dynamic.

I understand the point you are trying to make, but just think you stretched the argument a little thin here to make it.

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by: aznew @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 20:59:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Of course not. (0.00 / 0)

If I say, President X tends to fire up Group Y, that does not imply that I'm saying President X ONLY tends to fire up Group Y. It's simply a factual, empirically verifiable statement about a phenomenon observed in the real world.  It's also common sense.

Follow me on Twitter.

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by: lowkell @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:04:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How Good... (0.00 / 0)

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by: Elaine in Roanoke @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 22:06:58 PM UTC

How Good... (4.00 / 1)

that Tom Perriello continues his habit of not running from being a Democrat who knows that he has a Democratic president elected by 53% of Americans.

I have always thought that the key to Tom winning another term was for African-American voters in the 5th coming out and voting, plus motivating the voters under 30 to cast their votes in this race. The President appeals to both groups. Indeed, the voters 35 and under were in large part responsible for Mr. Obama's election. He understands that. Tom Perriello does, too.

Tom Perriello and Barack Obama represent the future of the United States. Robert Hurt represents the past.

By the way, all the polls have underestimated turnout for both A-A voters and young voters...

Sorry about that abbreviated post above...:-)

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by: Elaine in Roanoke @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 22:14:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Feedback (0.00 / 0)

I hope I didn't mean to come across as saying that Obama would only fire up African-American voters or come across as racists at all. What I am saying is that Perriello in order to win needs African-American voters to vote as close to their percentage of the population as possible. The poll I cited had Perriello down 6 points with only 14.6% of the respondents being African-American. If Perriello comes close having African-Americans constituting 25% of the votes he is likely to win. Obama can help him accomplish that like nobody else can.

Sending in Clinton, Warner, Webb or even Darrell Green wouldn't accomplish what Obama would be able to. At this point the anti-Obama vote is just about maxed out so a visit from Obama won't sink Perriello.  

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 02:26:05 AM UTC

Long Term the President... (0.00 / 0)

needs Tom Perriello. Come what may next Tuesday, Tom Perriello is one of the most intriguing and convincing Democrats within the entire party. The positions Tom has staked out and hammers home every chance he gets .... are exactly the positions the President needs to fully embrace and promote.

For this election Tom Perriello is sort of a bell weather candidate / campaign .... that foreshadows the issues and challenges facing Barrack Obama in 2012.  

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by: Jim Webb Dem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:04:05 AM UTC