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Poll: Kathleen Murphy 48%-Barbara Comstock 45%

by: lowkell

Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 08:04:53 AM EDT


Encouraging news from the Kathleen Murphy for Delegate campaign. Now, let's hope the Republican "brand" has become so toxic due to the Republican government shutdown, social issues extremism, etc., that it takes down a bunch of Republican Delegates currently holding down "Obama/Kaine districts." Oh, and if you're interested, you can read my interview with Kathleen Murphy here. She's a remarkable woman who will make s superb addition to the Virginia House of Delegates!
Memorandum

Date: October 11, 2013
To: Interested Parties
From: Andrew Myers & Lauren Spangler

Status of the Contest - VA HD34
_____________________________

According to the results of our recent survey of 400 likely November voters, the contest for control in the 34th House of Delegates has moved to an absolute dead heat today, with Democrat Kathleen Murphy leading Republican Barbara Comstock by 3 points, 48 to 45 percent1. Just as importantly, in our simulated model, in which undecided voters are allocated to the candidates based on their self-described partisan leanings, Murphy captures majority status and bests Comstock by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent.

lowkell :: Poll: Kathleen Murphy 48%-Barbara Comstock 45%
Overall, this survey demonstrates that there have been dramatic changes in Comstock's personal standing - her cool, or negative impressions, have grown by a 12 points to 36 percent and favorable impressions have dropped by 11 points to 40 percent. Most notable in this shift is that all of the negative growth has been in the very unfavorable category. Consequently, Comstock's job ratings have also shifted, and today voters split nearly evenly in their impressions of her work as Delegate with 45 percent saying she is doing an excellent or good job, an 8 point drop, and 44 percent rating the job she is doing as just fair or poor, an 11 point increase.

The favorable trends afoot here for Democrats are also seen at the top of the ticket, where Terry McAuliffe bests Ken Cuccinelli by 15 points, 54 to 39 percent, and in the generic legislative contest, where today a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican for Delegate by 9 points, 50 to 41 percent. Notably that performance mirrors the generic performance we saw in this district in 2007 when Democrat Margie Vanderhye carried the district on Election Day.

Bottom line, the salience of Murphy's message and contrast with Comstock on choice, along with a favorable electoral environment, in part fueled by the federal government shutdown, have all come together to put this contest solidly in play for Democrats, and it represents the Democrats' best shot to win control of this seat in the last two elections.

---------------------------------------
1 These findings are based on a survey of 400 likely November 2009 voters in Virginia's 34th House of Delegates District. Calling took place from October 9 - 10, 2013, and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Myers Research | Strategic Services staff. The data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total expected vote. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.9 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is greater and varies.

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Comstock (3.50 / 2)
A win by Kathleen Murphy would sure cause shivers down Wolfe's spine!  This seat ought to be in a democrat's hands.  Comstock has been hiding from her voting record - literally, canceling her last two appearances with Murphy.  She's on the run, let's keep it that way.



Countdown- (0.00 / 0)
Comstock is allegedly going to appear with Murphy on Tuesday October 22nd at the Chamber "debate". If Comstock's afraid of 10 protestors- wait until the 22nd!

Thanks for all that you do Ms. Haas!


[ Parent ]
Thousands of protesters on November 5th (4.00 / 1)
All quiet, just showing up at various polling locations and silently casting votes for Kathleen Murphy.

We really do have the momentum in this.  I'm a furloughed federal employee and there are thousands of us and our spouses and other family voting in HD-34 and elsewhere in NoVA.  I suspect Comstock knows she's in trouble now.  If she doesn't, she's going to lose bigger than she would otherwise.


[ Parent ]
Comstock is still campaigning hard (4.00 / 2)
Comstock is already up on TV. Her ad during yesterday's football game claimed credit for everything short of achieving world peace. She omits any mention of:

Voted NO on bipartisan transportation bill 2013, HB2313

Voted to make stem cell research, in-vitro fertilization & IUDs illegal 2012, HB 1

Voted for mandatory trans-vaginal ultrasound bill 2012, HB462

Earned an "A" rating from NRA McLean Patch, 10/11/11

Her PAC pledged $1.5M to Cuccinelli campaign Politico, 2/28/13

Murphy-Comstock is a tough-but-winnable race. If Dems get behind Murphy and tell their friends to join them, we can send Comstock back to her lobbying practice.


Murphy - just has to do a TV Ad - with the list you just provided (4.00 / 2)
Then show pictures of Comstock with the DC teapartiers in Congress -  

[ Parent ]
Comstock (4.00 / 2)
She needs to be tied to her "tea party/shutdown the government" friends.  Karl Rove, Kochs and other tea partiers have donated to Comstock (per VPAP).   If the voters in the 34th knew of her voting record and her friends (both of which she is hiding very well),  the the race would be won by Kathleen hands down.  Let's help get the real Comstock exposed and get Kathleen elected !


Myers & Spangler (0.00 / 0)
I wish these pollsters would write in English.  Much of this memorandum is worded as clear as mud.  When Margi Vanderhye won in 2007 a generic Democrat led a generic Republican by 9 points?  What does that have to do with the actual election going on today?  

Then there is this dubious statement: "Bottom line, the salience of Murphy's message and contrast with Comstock on choice, along with a favorable electoral environment, in part fueled by the federal government shutdown, have all come together to put this contest solidly in play for Democrats, and it represents the Democrats' best shot to win control of this seat in the last two elections."  

Did they ask questions in the poll about the shutdown? If not that statement is unsupported speculation on the Myers Research wordsmiths part.

In my simulated model, in which undecided voters are allocated according to how they will actually vote, Barbara Comstock leads 56-44 percent.


Genie in a bottle- (0.00 / 0)
In my simulated model, in which undecided voters are allocated according to how they will actually vote

So Comstock will win? ;)  


[ Parent ]
Myers & Spangler (0.00 / 0)
I believe Barbara will win but that particular quote you cite was made in reference to a statement in the memorandum that I thought was questionable.  Here is the statement:

"in our simulated model, in which undecided voters are allocated to the candidates based on their self-described partisan leanings, etc."  


[ Parent ]
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The purpose of Blue Virginia is to cover Virginia politics from a progressive and Democratic perspective. This is a group blog and a community blog. We invite everyone to comment here, but please be aware that profanity, personal attacks, bigotry, insults, rudeness, frequent unsupported or off-point statements, "trolling" (NOTE: that includes outright lies, whether about climate science, or what other people said, or whatever), and "troll ratings abuse" (e.g., "troll" rating someone simply because you disagree with their argument) are not permitted and, if continued, will lead to banning. For more on trolling, see the Daily Kos FAQs. Also note that diaries may be deleted if they do not contain at least 2 solid paragraphs of original text; if not, please use the comments section of a relevant diary. For more on writing diaries, click here. Thanks, and enjoy!

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