Wednesday, October 28, 2009

We're in the last week of this election, and it's time that we as Democrats take an honest look at the state of this election and plan our last days before this election accordingly. Creigh Deeds, Jody Wagner, and Steve Shannon are significantly down.

The latest round of polling data:

*McDonnell leads Deeds by 15 points, 55%-40%
*Bolling leads Wagner by 12 points, 50%-38%
*Cuccinelli leads Shannon by 16 points, 52%-36%

All three statewide Republicans are over 50% with just a few days remaining. In addition, our Democratic statewide candidates are slowly losing ground over the last several weeks and the expected Democratic turnout is falling in poll after poll. These races, barring a major Republican meltdown, are all but certainly over. Knowing this (and accepting it), where do we go?

All of the House of Delegates seats are up this year. These seats are still up for grabs in many districts. These are the candidates we should be focusing on now, seats we can save and some we can still pick up. Losing the 3 top ticket races will hurt, but we should not compound these losses with unnecessary loses in the legislature.

It's time to triage, and we should move quickly.


  1. Triage? Are you kidding me? Someone who will vote for Werkheiser will vote for Jody. Someone whose voting for Tom Shields is a Shannon voter. Someone who will come out for Stevens Miller or Scott Surovell can be expected to vote for Creigh.

    What are you telling voters, Kyle? Vote for Robin Abbott, but you could care less if Bob McDonnell is elected governor?

    This is rhetorical. Please don't reply because I while I so disagree, I don't want to argue about it.

    I think we need to get every voter to vote up and down the ticket.

  2. Is there a GOTV operation even happening in Virginia? I worked on Robb's in '88 and Wilder's in '89, and none of the people I worked with who still live in the Commonwealth have even gotten a "touching base" call as of last weekend.

  3. Tom, all I'm saying is that people need to acceop what's going to happen on Nov. 3 as far as statewides are concerned. Instead of wasting resources on those races, we need to put them into the HoD races instead.

  4. Everyone, to include those hating on the statewide candidates right now will agree that there is a correlation between the top and the ticket and down ballot. If the statewide's collapse then it's going to destroy the down ballot races. Even Ben doesn't account for really salvaging any races so the triage is essentially a waste because if they lose as bad as you both want him to then the House candidates are screwed. He knows that no matter what under his 10+ loss prediction that HoD candidates lose big and it is inevitable.

  5. DanielK,

    Kyle and I live in Virginia Beach, where our two Democratic Delegates, Joe Bouchard and Bobby Mathieson, are significantly outperforming Deeds. These two races are toss ups. Enthusiasm for voting for the top of the ticket races isn't enough to get our base to the polls because they've seen the news and read the papers and think their votes aren't going to matter enough for the time and effort involved.

    In our case, an intense effort to drive our base out to vote for Bouchard and Mathieson will help upticket because once they're in the booth they'll vote for the other Democrats also. So, at least in Virginia Beach, my deeply considered opinion is that Kyle is right on target.

    If we do as Kyle suggests and work hard for Bouchard and Mathieson, who are both well liked and in much closer races than our statewide candidates appear to be from all accounts, we can not only save these two delegates, but we'll get more votes for our statewide candidates as well.

    Obviously the statewide situation is hurting us a lot everywhere. But in cases in which there are well liked down ticket candidates, there absolutely can, and hopefully will, be reverse coattails.

    All Democrats,

    In these final days, please do what makes sense in your own situation to help the Democratic cause as much as you can.

    If you are or can be in Hampton Roads, I hope you will consider volunteering for Joe Bouchard and Bobby Mathieson in Virginia Beach or for Robin Abbott in Newport News. Each of those races could go either way. If you're outside of the area and are in a position to part with some money that will be very well spent, I hope you will consider a last minute donation to any of these races if you can. What helps these candidates will also help our statewide candidates.

    My best,


  6. I'm active in 34, Margi Vanderhye's district, and Kyle is right and Tom Greeson is wrong. There are plenty of McDonnell-Vanderhye crossover voters here. There are few or no Deeds-Comstock crossover voters. So Comstock needs straight Rs to sufficiently outnumber straight Ds to make up the difference. Now, Comstock just might get that needed margin from straight Rs, it's plausible. But there is no question Vanderhye will outperform Deeds in 34.

    I'm sure the same is true elsewhere.

    Yes there are coattails, but they're not uniform. Where Deeds might cost Margi a couple points in 34, he might cost Bouchard more in Virginia Beach, or Bowling even more out varies wildly. And local candidates and their campaigns have everything to do with how much bleeding they suffer from a disaster up-ballot.